Currencies Direct Transfers Compared

Bias EUR/USD: bullish-to-range-bound near the 90-day avg, in the upper half of the 3m range. Fed easing toward neutral and firmer oil could support EUR; strong US payrolls could push it lower. Key drivers - Rate gap: ECB policy on hold while the Fed is expected to ease toward a neutral stance in 2026, narrowing the gap that has supported the dollar. - Oil trend: Oil firm with volatility; firmer oil tends to lift euro-area inflation expectations and support the euro. - Macro factor: ECB is expected to maintain a neutral stance through 2026 as eurozone inflation cools toward target, allowing only gradual moves. Range The pair is likely to drift within the three-month range, with a modest tilt toward the upper end if risk appetite improves. What could change it - Upside risk: Softer-than-expected US data could spur earlier Fed easing, lifting EUR/USD toward the upper end. - Downside risk: Strong US employment data or a shift in risk appetite toward the dollar could push EUR/USD lower