Outlook
The euro remains under pressure as the US dollar strengthens. Hotter eurozone inflation didn't translate into gains, though EUR held up versus riskier peers. Today, January unemployment is expected to stay at a record low, which could offer modest EUR support if confirmed in the session.
Key drivers
• US dollar strength and higher US rate expectations weigh on EUR
• Hotter eurozone inflation did not lift EUR
• Unemployment is forecast to stay at a record low, potentially supporting EUR
• Oil price rally adds to energy costs and market volatility
Range
EUR/USD near 1.1607, at 30-day lows, within a 1.1586–1.2031 range (3.8%)
EUR/GBP near 0.8695, at 14-day lows, within 0.8628–0.8787
EUR/JPY near 183.2, at 7-day lows, within 180.6–186.2
Oil: near 84.53, 90-day highs, 28.5% above 3-month average (65.78), within a broad 59.04–84.53 range (43.2%)
What could change it
• Unexpected improvement in eurozone unemployment data could support EUR
• Softer US inflation or weaker USD could lift EUR
• Oil price retreat could ease downside pressure
• A shift in ECB rate expectations could move EUR
