Outlook
The euro held ground after Lagarde signalled inflation should stabilise near 2%, supporting a policy hold. With German CPI due today, a modest cooling could keep gains in check for the week, while a stronger print might lift the euro if ECB risks recede.
Key drivers
- Lagarde's remarks point to a 2% inflation path, reinforcing a cautious stance.
- German CPI today could cool inflation, potentially capping euro strength.
- Oil at 72.53 dollars sits near 90-day highs and can shape euro moves via energy costs and market mood.
Range
EURUSD around 1.1818; range 1.1586–1.2031.
EURGBP around 0.8767; range 0.8628–0.8799.
EURJPY around 184.4; range 180.5–186.2.
Brent Crude OIL/USD near 72.53; range 59.04–72.53; note: 90-day highs.
What could change it
- German CPI surprise that shifts ECB policy expectations.
- Oil price moves that alter energy costs or market mood.
- New data or events that change inflation or growth outlook.
