Bias: bullish-to-range-bound because the USD/TRY sits above its ninety-day average and in the upper half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates toward a neutral stance in the coming year, while Türkiye’s central bank has signaled cautious easing amid high inflation, supporting USD/TRY.
Inflation trends: Inflation remains elevated in Türkiye, keeping pressure on the lira.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the recent range, with a possible test of the upper end if USD strength persists.
What could change it:
Upside risk: stronger US payrolls data or a plan to keep policy tighter for longer boosting the dollar.
Downside risk: softer US data or expectations of faster Fed easing reducing demand for the dollar.
