The USD to TRY exchange rate is currently bearish.
Key drivers include:
- The Federal Reserve is expected to implement multiple interest rate cuts, which could weaken the USD.
- The Turkish Central Bank plans to maintain a policy of easing, with expectations of lowering rates further, affecting the lira.
- Inflation remains a critical factor, as Turkey’s Central Bank targets a 16% inflation rate, suggesting ongoing price pressures.
In the near term, the exchange rate is likely to remain within a stable range around the current highs.
An upside risk could arise if U.S. economic growth outpaces expectations, boosting the USD's strength. Conversely, a downside risk may come from escalating inflation in Turkey, which could lead to more significant lira depreciation, straining economic conditions.
