Recent forecasts and currency market updates indicate a complex interplay of factors affecting the USD to TRY exchange rate. As of mid-November 2025, the USD is trading at 90-day highs near 42.44 TRY, which is 1.8% above its three-month average of 41.7 TRY. The exchange rate has exhibited relative stability within a 3.7% range over the past months.
The US dollar is experiencing pressure largely due to mixed U.S. labor market data. Analysts noted that while payrolls surged to a five-month high in September, a surprising increase in unemployment and downward revisions in previous payroll figures have raised concerns about the strength of the economy. This situation has fueled speculation about a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy, though expectations for an imminent rate cut in December have moderated.
Economic indicators, particularly the upcoming US S&P PMIs, may further influence dollar sentiment. A slowdown in private-sector activity could put additional downward pressure on the USD.
On the Turkish side, the central bank has faced increasing inflation challenges. Recent forecasts indicate that inflation is anticipated to remain higher than previously expected, with the central bank adjusting its projections for 2025. A rise in annual inflation to 33.29% in September has raised concerns over the effectiveness of current monetary policies. The central bank's move to slow interest rate cuts while reaffirming long-term inflation targets suggests a cautious approach to navigating ongoing economic pressures.
Additionally, political unrest has contributed to market volatility, significantly affecting the stability of the Turkish lira. Events such as the protests due to political tensions have historically led to sharp depreciations, emphasizing the volatility risk associated with the TRY.
Overall, the outlook for the USD to TRY exchange rate remains sensitive to both U.S. economic data and Turkey's inflationary pressures and political climate. Investors and businesses engaged in international transactions should closely monitor these developments, as they could have significant implications for currency valuation and transaction costs.
