The USD to TRY exchange rate remains subject to significant volatility influenced by various economic pressures and geopolitical tensions. As of the latest updates, the USD is trading at 41.82, marking a 1.9% increase from its three-month average of 41.06. This fluctuation has occurred within a relatively stable range of 4.2%, with values oscillating between 40.18 and 41.85.
Recent analysis highlights several factors affecting the USD’s performance. The U.S. dollar is currently facing volatility, exacerbated by uncertainties surrounding US-China trade relations and market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Notably, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is widely anticipated and may influence the USD's direction depending on whether his remarks lean hawkish, potentially reducing expectations for further interest rate cuts.
On the Turkish lira side, the currency is under pressure due to a surge in inflation which reached 33.29% in September 2025. This increase is attributed to rising prices in essential sectors such as food, housing, and education. The Central Bank of Turkey has responded to these inflationary pressures by raising the overnight lending rate to 46% as of March 2025, aiming to stabilize the lira. However, the recent termination of the foreign exchange-protected deposit scheme, which had previously provided some support to the lira, adds to the uncertainty surrounding its future stability.
Additional developments, such as political unrest linked to the detention of Istanbul's mayor, have further compounded challenges for the Turkish currency, with recent protests contributing to its depreciation. Analysts note that these socio-political factors, paired with Turkey's monetary policy decisions, will play a crucial role in the lira's trajectory against the dollar.
Overall, market participants are advised to remain vigilant as both currencies respond to shifting economic indicators and geopolitical events.
