31 March 2026
1. Czech National Bank (CNB) Interest Rate Decision
On 5 February 2026, the CNB maintained the two-week repo rate at 3.5%, aiming to keep inflation close to the 2% target. (cnb.cz)
2. CNB's Winter 2026 Forecast
The CNB projects the koruna to average CZK 24.3 to the euro in Q1 2026, slightly weakening to CZK 24.5 by the end of the year. (cnb.cz)
3. IMF's Article IV Mission Report
The IMF recommends the CNB gradually normalize its balance sheet through small, regular foreign exchange sales to maintain financial stability. (imf.org)
4. UBS Adjusts Koruna Forecast
UBS revised its koruna forecast to CZK 24.3 across the forecast horizon, citing easing inflationary pressures in the Czech Republic. (investing.com)
5. Macroeconomic Forecast by Ministry of Finance
The Ministry forecasts inflation at 2.4% in 2026, slightly above the target, with core inflation at 2.7%, mainly due to services and housing costs. (kb.cz)
6. CNB's Monetary Policy Report
The CNB's Winter 2026 report indicates that a stronger koruna could lead to lower interest rates to keep inflation near the 2% target. (cnb.cz)
7. CNB's August 2025 Interest Rate Decision
In August 2025, the CNB kept interest rates unchanged, expecting inflation to gradually decline towards the 2% target. (cnb.cz)
8. Macroeconomic Forecast by Ministry of Finance
The Ministry's November 2025 forecast anticipates inflation at 2.4% in 2025, with core inflation at 2.7%, driven by services and housing costs. (mf.gov.cz)
9. CNB's Monetary Policy Report
The CNB's Spring 2025 report projects a slightly weaker koruna over the forecast horizon, influenced by subdued labour productivity growth and moderate investment capital outflows. (cnb.cz)
10. CNB's Monetary Policy Report
The CNB's Winter 2026 report highlights that a stronger koruna could lead to lower interest rates to keep inflation near the 2% target. (cnb.cz)
These developments indicate that the CNB is focused on maintaining price stability and financial stability, with projections suggesting a stable to slightly weaker koruna in the near future.
AUD Weekly Overview: Testing Key Levels
Updated 28 Jul 2026 • 23:45 GMT
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is currently testing the critical 0.7000 level against the USD, following a recent upswing fueled by high interest-rate differentials and strong commodity prices. Despite the recent rally and constructive technical setup above the 200-day SMA, the future trajectory of the AUD will be heavily influenced by developments in the US, including any changes in interest-rate expectations and geopolitical risks. The Reserve Bank of Australia's input, with events such as the upcoming CPI report, will also be pivotal in shaping market expectations.
Key watchpoints
- Technical Thresholds: Monitor if AUD/USD can sustain a breakout above 0.7000, which may lead to further upside driven by short-covering.
- Central Bank Signals: Keep an eye on RBA's communications and economic data releases, particularly the CPI, for cues on monetary policy direction.
- Global Influences: US interest-rate decisions and geopolitical developments, particularly related to energy prices, could significantly impact AUD movements.