The INR to CNY exchange rate has recently been under significant pressure, largely due to a confluence of macroeconomic factors affecting the Indian Rupee and the Chinese Yuan. As of November 2025, the INR has reached a low point against the US dollar and is currently trading at 90-day lows near 0.079303 CNY, which is 1.6% below its three-month average of 0.080596 CNY. The INR's fluctuations have been constrained within a 3.5% range of 0.079303 to 0.082071.
Analysts note that the Indian Rupee's decline can be attributed to several critical factors. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been actively intervening in the market, expanding its short dollar forward positions to stabilize the weakening currency amid heightened importer demand for dollars. This demand has been compounded by concerns over US tariffs and ongoing immigration policies. Additionally, weak manufacturing exports and a narrowing policy rate differential with the US further exacerbate the pressures on the rupee.
On the other hand, the Chinese Yuan shows signs of potential strengthening, with several global investment firms projecting that it may strengthen beyond the significant 7-yuan-per-dollar threshold in 2026. This anticipated appreciation is supported by improving trade relations, capital inflows, and the narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US. Notably, the People's Bank of China aims to stabilize the yuan's exchange rate, emphasizing the importance of maintaining currency stability amid economic challenges.
Overall, the strength of the Chinese Yuan and the persistent pressures on the Indian Rupee suggest that the INR to CNY exchange rate may continue to be impacted by these contrasting trends. Forecasters indicate that unless significant changes occur in the current economic dynamics, the rupee may remain susceptible to downside risks, while the yuan could see gradual strengthening. Businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions should remain vigilant to these developments, as an understanding of the macroeconomic landscape will be crucial for optimizing currency conversion strategies.
