The exchange rate between the Indian Rupee (INR) and Chinese Yuan (CNY) has recently experienced significant volatility, primarily influenced by developments in both countries' economies and monetary policies. Analysts note that as of November 11, 2025, the INR is at a notable low against the CNY, trading at approximately 0.080042. This reflects a slight decline of 0.9% from its three-month average of 0.080777 and positions the INR within a stable range, having fluctuated only 3% in recent months.
The Indian Rupee has faced pressure due to a historic decline against the US dollar, reaching an all-time low of 88.62 in late September 2025. Contributing factors include rising H-1B visa fees, decreased foreign equity inflows, and persistent demand from importers hedging against costs tied to US tariffs and immigration policies. The Reserve Bank of India's ($RBI) intervention in the market—expanding short dollar forward positions—has also been a significant factor in attempts to stabilize the rupee. Weak manufacturing export growth and a narrowing interest rate differential with the US are additional elements that may adversely impact INR performance.
In contrast, the Chinese Yuan shows promise for strengthening based on forecasts from various global investment firms. Expectations for the yuan to surpass the critical 7-yuan-per-dollar level by 2026 stem from improving capital inflows, better trade relations, and a strategic effort by China to enhance the international acceptance of its currency. The People's Bank of China has reiterated its commitment to maintaining exchange rate stability, which, coupled with a recovering economy bolstered by extensive government stimulus, indicates positive momentum for the Yuan.
Given the current economic landscape, forecasters suggest that businesses and individuals engaged in transactions involving these currencies should consider the ongoing pressures on the INR while monitoring potential strengthening of the CNY in the near future. As both currencies navigate their respective challenges and opportunities, the dynamics between the INR and CNY will continue to evolve, importantly impacting international transaction costs.
