Date: March 31, 2026
Key Developments Affecting the Indian Rupee (INR):
1. Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices
- Middle East Conflict: Escalating tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel-US conflict, have led to a surge in global crude oil prices, impacting India's import costs and current account balance. (insightsonindia.com)
2. Foreign Portfolio Outflows
- Equity Market Withdrawals: Foreign investors have pulled significant funds from Indian equities, contributing to increased demand for US dollars and exerting downward pressure on the INR. (finnovate.in)
3. Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Policy Stance
- Flexible Exchange Rate Approach: Under Governor Sanjay Malhotra, the RBI has adopted a more flexible approach to currency movements, allowing the rupee to weaken to manage external pressures. (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
4. Economic Survey Projections
- Capital Flow Risks: The Economic Survey 2025-26 highlights potential disruptions in capital flows and their impact on the INR as key risks for India in 2026. (business-standard.com)
These factors collectively influence the INR's performance, with ongoing geopolitical developments and capital flow dynamics playing pivotal roles.
31 March 2026
1. Rupee Depreciation Amid Middle East Conflict
The Sri Lankan rupee has depreciated by approximately 1.3% in 2026, with pressures intensifying following the Middle East conflict. By 25 March 2026, the exchange rate reached around Rs. 314.2 per US dollar. (english.newsfirst.lk)
2. Central Bank's Foreign Exchange Purchases
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has been actively purchasing foreign exchange, with net purchases totaling $700 million in the first two months of 2026. This strategy aims to bolster the country's foreign reserves. (ft.lk)
3. IMF Emergency Financial Support
In December 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved emergency financing of approximately $206 million for Sri Lanka under the Rapid Financing Instrument. This support is intended to address urgent balance-of-payments and fiscal pressures resulting from Cyclone Ditwah. (imf.org)
4. Policy Rate Unchanged Amid Economic Growth
The CBSL maintained the Overnight Policy Rate at 7.75% in January 2026, citing firm economic growth and inflation moving towards the 5% target. Inflation remained at 2.1% in December 2025, with expectations of gradual increase by late 2026. (fibre2fashion.com)
These developments highlight the dynamic factors influencing the Sri Lankan rupee's performance in 2026.