Exchange Rates & Currency Deals

Bias USD/DKK range-bound near 90-day avg, sits in upper 3m band. Fed to ease toward neutral in 2026; DK peg to euro steady, moves tied to euro-area signals. Key drivers - Rate gap: The Fed is expected to ease toward a neutral stance in 2026, while Denmark’s central bank continues to defend the krone peg to the euro with a steady rate path. - Macro factor: US payrolls and unemployment data due soon could alter Fed easing expectations. - Policy/FX regime: The Danish fixed exchange-rate peg to the euro and ECB policy path provide stability, meaning moves hinge on euro-area signals rather than Denmark alone. Range The pair is likely to drift within the three-month range, with a mild tilt toward the upper end as it sits near 30-day highs. What could change it - Upside risk: stronger US payrolls and a lower unemployment rate could push the dollar higher. - Downside risk: cooler US data and a clearer path to rate cuts could weigh on the dollar