Outlook
AUD remains choppy as global risk conditions drive moves. Strong Q4 GDP supported the economy but did not erase risk-off demand. Today’s trade data could offer support if the surplus widens, yet geopolitical uncertainty may keep volatility elevated.
Key drivers
- GDP beat did not lift AUD steadily due to a risk-off mood.
- A wider trade surplus could offer AUD support upon release.
- Global geopolitical uncertainty keeps swings in the currency complex.
- The AUD's sensitivity to commodity prices (resources-linked) can shape moves.
Range
AUD/USD near 0.7010; range 0.6604–0.7125.
AUD/EUR near 0.6040; range 0.5625–0.6080.
AUD/GBP near 0.5249; range 0.4936–0.5291.
AUD/JPY near 110.4; range 102.7–111.5.
What could change it
- A shift in risk appetite to a more positive stance.
- A larger trade surplus or stronger commodity prices for Australia.
- A clearer path for global inflation and policy expectations.
- A clear shift in RBA stance or policy expectations.
