AUD/USD forecasts in 2020 are influenced by three factors; the coronavirus impact on economies, changes in the delta between interest rates in Australia and the US and also the trade war between China and the US and now also Australia.
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Australian dollar to US dollar bank forecasts
The USD experienced a sell-off in early November as investors moved away from the safe haven of the dollar and into riskier assets, off the back of Biden winning the presidential election and the positive news of COVID-19 vaccine testing.
The AUD might break through recent resistance around 0.7340 over the next weeks. A clearcut Biden win and further positive COVID-19 vaccine news could help drive the AUD towards new highs closer to 0.74 US cents. November Update
The Aussie dollar in 2020
In the second quarter of 2020 AUD staged a rapid recovery through the months of April, May and into June up 25% from its mid-March lows to US70c in early June. This is due more to the perceived benefits to Australia of an awakening post-pandemic Chinese economy than the political-social situation in the US depressing the USD.
The Aussie had been savaged in March sliding to US55 cents the lowest since 2003. Growing fears of the coronavirus outbreak moved the market into safer currencies such as the USD and away from AUD, NZD and CAD.
The virus was a double blow to the Aussie after the earlier threat of proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq had also pared back some of the gains the Aussie had made coming into the New Year.
The Australian dollar had started the new decade strongly climbing to multi-month highs helped along by cooling trade tensions between the United States and China and optimism for global economic growth in the year ahead.
The Aussie broke back over US70 cents on the final day of 2019 — a level not seen since mid year. During December the Australian dollar reversed direction (again) and climbed steadily back up against the US dollar on the back of the strength of the housing market and a market perception that further interest rate cuts were less likely.
National Australia Bank have revised upwards their Aussie dollar forecasts now expecting the AUD/USD rate at US80c by June 2022 ( USD/AUD = $1.25 ), up from their previous forecast of US75c.
While Westpac see the AU dollar hitting US80c 6 months earlier by the end of 2021.
For 2020, NAB sees the Australian dollar at US74c by year-end, up from a predicted US72c.
Forecasts and predictions for the AUD/USD exchange rate change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Australian and US economies. This continually updated article reviews AUD to USD bank forecasts and recent trends for both currencies.
This is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider the current AUD-USD relative value is to check the change in the exchange over a range of periods to the present day. The below table does this for periods going back 10 years.
AUD/USD
Change
Period
0.7295
23 Nov 2020
0.7% ▲
1 Week
0.7029
31 Oct 2020
4.5% ▲
30 Days
0.7377
01 Sep 2020
0.5% ▼
90 Days
0.6765
01 Dec 2019
8.5% ▲
1 Year
0.7302
02 Dec 2015
0.6% ▲
5 Years
0.9871
03 Dec 2010
25.6% ▼
10 Years
AUD/USD 10 year historic rates & change to 30-Nov-2020 : 0.7343