AUD to USD Forecast

Westpac have raised their forecast for the Aussie dollar to US 72 cents by the end of 2020 (from US 68 cents) and rising to US 76 cents in 2021.

In the second quarter of 2020 AUD staged a rapid recovery through the months of April, May and into June up 25% from its mid-March lows to US70c in early June. This is due more to the perceived benefits to Australia of an awakening post-pandemic Chinese economy than the political-social situtation in the US dpressing the USD.

The Aussie had been savaged in March sliding to US55 cents the lowest since 2003. Growing fears of the coronavirus outbreak moved the market into safer currencies such as the USD and away from AUD, NZD and CAD.

The virus was a double blow to the Aussie after the earlier threat of proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq had also pared back some of the gains the Aussie had made coming into the New Year.

The Australian dollar had started the new decade strongly climbing to multi-month highs helped along by cooling trade tensions between the United States and China and optimism for global economic growth in the year ahead.

The Aussie broke back over US70 cents on the final day of 2019 — a level not seen since mid year. During December the Australian dollar reversed direction (again) and climbed steadily back up against the US dollar on the back of the strength of the housing market and a market perception that further interest rate cuts were less likely.