AUD/USD forecasts so far in 2021 are mainly influenced by risk-on or risk-off sentiment dependent on positive or negative news of COVID-19 vaccine results and any early signs of a pick up in US inflation.
AUDUSD at 0.7844has risen 1.5% above its 90-day average, range 0.7582-0.7976.
Alerts:1D▲+0.8% | 60D▲HIGH |
Australian dollar to US dollar bank 2021 forecasts
The Australian dollar enjoyed a sharp uptick mid-April, advancing above US77c through resistance amid a heightened demand for risk and lower US Treasury yields.
OFX remain optimistic the AUD will maintain momentum through the long term, however a short-term break toward 0.76 (1.31) is possible if risk demand doesn’t re-establish a solid footing. In April OFX predicted that if AUD/USD can’t break the 0.80 level again (USD/AUD 1.25) then this could see investor demand for the antipodean currency waiver.
The Aussie had risen so far as to touch US80¢ briefly on Feb 25th before changing course abruptly during March — due to a surge in US treasury yields — to be trading down at Easter at around US76¢ to the greenback.
Before this ‘reflationary’ news the Australian Dollar had been rising due to a combination of rising Australian government bond yields and commodity prices racing ahead, these factors are two prime drivers of Aussie Dollar demand.
The Australian dollar has benefited from a US dollar sell-off since early November as investors moved away from the safe haven of the USD and into riskier assets, off the back of Biden winning the presidential election and the positive news of COVID-19 vaccine testing.
Westpac has lifted its Australian dollar forecast to AUD/USD = US82c by the end of 2021 ( USD/AUD = $1.22 ), up from their previous year-end forecast of US80¢. Further afield they see the rate at US85¢ by mid-2022.
Forecasts and predictions for the AUD/USD exchange rate change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Australian and US economies. This continually updated article reviews AUD to USD bank forecasts and recent trends for both currencies.
In the second quarter of 2020 AUD staged a rapid recovery through the months of April, May and into June up 25% from its mid-March lows to US70c in early June. This is due more to the perceived benefits to Australia of an awakening post-pandemic Chinese economy than the political-social situation in the US depressing the USD.
The Aussie had been savaged in March sliding to US55 cents the lowest since 2003. Growing fears of the coronavirus outbreak moved the market into safer currencies such as the USD and away from AUD, NZD and CAD.
The virus was a double blow to the Aussie after the earlier threat of proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq had also pared back some of the gains the Aussie had made coming into the New Year.
The Australian dollar had started the new decade strongly climbing to multi-month highs helped along by cooling trade tensions between the United States and China and optimism for global economic growth in the year ahead.
What is a good AUD to USD exchange rate?
Whether the US dollar will rise or drop in the future versus the Australian dollar is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider the current AUD-USD relative value is to check the change in the exchange over a range of periods to the present day. The below table does this for periods going back 10 years.
30 Apr 2021
07 Apr 2021
06 Feb 2021
07 May 2020
08 May 2016
10 May 2011
AUD/USD 10 year historic rates & change to 07-May-2021 : 0.7844
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