Bias: Range-bound, since USD/HUF is near the 90-day average and in the middle of the three-month range, suggesting little near-term breakout.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Fed is seen moving toward neutral with possible rate cuts later in the cycle, which could support a softer dollar if realized and tilt the pair toward the forint on a calm backdrop.
• Macro factor: Hungary's inflation remains above target and core inflation holds firm, keeping the MNB cautious and helping the forint to resist further softening.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the three-month range, with limited impulse to test extremes unless data surprises on either side.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger US jobs report or a hawkish Fed tone could lift the dollar and push USD/HUF higher on the day.
• Downside risk: Softer US data or clearer Fed easing signals, plus cooling Hungarian inflation, could push USD/HUF lower as real yields (inflation-adjusted returns) compress.
