Outlook
The US dollar remains supported by the latest jobs data, with ADP private payrolls showing a 10,250 change—the third consecutive weekly rise—indicating a resilient labour market (ADP is a private payrolls estimate, not the official government data). If December durable goods orders contract around 2%, USD could face pressure later in the session. Markets will also weigh Federal Reserve policy expectations, global trade dynamics and geopolitical risks, with oil prices adding a EUR-cross effect.
Key drivers
• ADP payrolls showing a resilient labour market (10,250, third straight weekly gain)
• Federal Reserve policy expectations and the path for interest rates
• Global trade dynamics and dedollarization trends
• Geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand for the dollar
• Oil price moves and potential impact on EUR/USD via euro sensitivity to energy costs
Range
EUR/USD around 0.8438 (7-day highs; 1.1% below the 3-month average of 0.8528; range 0.8312–0.8684). USD/GBP around 0.7374 (7-day highs; 0.8% below the 3-month average of 0.7435; range 0.7227–0.7663). USD/JPY around 153.1 (1.9% below the 3-month average of 156.1; range 152.3–159.1). Oil price (WTI) around 68.76 USD/bbl (7.5% above the 3-month average of 63.94; range 59.04–70.26 USD/bbl).
What could change it
• A stronger-than-expected durable goods report or a continued upbeat jobs signal could push USD higher
• A shift in Fed stance toward higher-for-longer rates or earlier hikes could support the dollar
• Large moves in oil prices or a renewed risk-off environment could alter EUR/USD and broader cross-rates
• Escalation of geopolitical tensions or shifts in global risk sentiment could strengthen safe-haven demand for USD
