The USD to IDR exchange rate currently shows a bearish bias.
Key drivers include the potential for three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by mid-2026, which could weaken the USD. Additionally, improving global economic growth and rising commodity prices are expected to impact USD performance, creating further volatility. Bank Indonesia's inflation target of 2.62% for 2026 supports a stable outlook for the IDR.
The expected trading range for USD to IDR is likely to remain stable over the coming months, reflecting recent patterns around 16693, just above the 3-month average. The rupiah is projected to trade between 16,000 and 16,500 in 2026, according to Bank Indonesia.
Upside risks include stronger than anticipated economic recovery in Indonesia, while downside risks could arise from unexpected Federal Reserve policy changes or heightened global economic uncertainties.
