Best Exchange Rates Australia

Australian Dollar Market Outlook

Following a flash crash in early January, which saw the Australian dollar briefly trade at a 10-year low of $0.674, the Aussie recovered to $0.73, but then, as it had done before the flash crash, it commenced with a slow and steady decline, and it was back at $0.705 in mid-March and was predicted to fall further.

In February, HSBC predicted a year-end AUD/USD rate of $0.66. In March, Westpac and JP Morgan were slightly more upbeat and argued for $0.68.

Fuelling lower exchange rate forecasts is the Australian economic story, for which major themes include a housing market slump, Chinese growth and the US-China trade spat. The RBA slashed growth forecasts in February and markets are now pricing in 1-2 interest rate cuts this year.

Another Aussie exchange rate worth mentioning is AUD/GBP, which sank in mid-March to its lowest level in nearly 3 years, at just £0.53. The Australian dollar has been unable to compete with the pound of late, since the latter benefits every time the British government fails to make a decision on how to deliver Brexit (every time Brexit appears less likely or to be delayed).

US Dollar Market Outlook

The US dollar had been falling steadily in the lead-up to the March-20 Fed meeting, and those that were selling the currency amid speculation of a dovish surprise were entirely vindicated after the central bank ditched its December projection for two 2019 interest rate hikes and said it now sees rates unchanged until 2020.

The extent of the Fed’s dovish turn meant that the dollar suffered a rapid and significant correction. The euro leapt on the new projections to a 6-week high against the dollar of $1.145 and other major and emerging market currencies followed suit.

The Fed’s reassessment of future monetary policy reflects concerns over domestic and global economic growth, as well as inflation and risks originating overseas, likely including Brexit.

Earlier this year, ING said the dollar would soon “embark on a gradual long-term bearish trend.”

CIBC said: “A slowdown in the economy is likely to weigh on USD particularly in the second half of this year.”

Compare AUD-USD Exchange Rates.

British Pound Market Outlook

The Brexit debacle continues, as does above-average volatility in the British pound. Until now, the UK government’s inability to make any decisions has been to sterling’s advantage, since this casts doubt on the delivery of Brexit and/or makes a softer Brexit more likely.

Sterling’s uptrend is evident from recent peaks against the dollar, coming in at $1.322 on January-25, at $1.335 on February-27, and at $1.338 on March-13. Sterling had been as low as $1.237 in early January. It was at $1.32 at the time of this report.

Increasing the risk of a no-deal Brexit (potentially very bad for sterling) was the statement made on March-20 by EU Council President Donald Tusk, who said that the EU would agree to the Article 50 extension sought by the UK government only if British MPs first backed the current withdrawal agreement—the one that had twice been defeated by large parliamentary majorities.

Pound forecasts are futile given uncertainties over Brexit but estimates can be made for different outcomes. Currency analysts at HSBC said in February that sterling would be valued at levels near $1.10 in the event of no-deal, near $1.45 with a deal and at $1.55 if Brexit is cancelled.

Compare AUD-GBP Exchange Rates.

New Zealand Dollar Market Outlook

26-February-19: The New Zealand dollar has been among the best performers in early 2019: at the time of writing, it was showing a 3 percent year-to-date gain versus the US dollar (US$0.69), bettered within G10 FX only by the Canadian dollar and pound.

The kiwi’s upside might be limited over the coming 6-12 months due to a somewhat disappointing outlook for interest rates in New Zealand.

In February, the RBNZ said it would maintain rates at current levels this year and next, which was taken as a big positive at the time since a rate cut had partly been priced in. When considered against the hikes that are likely in Canada, the US, Europe, Scandinavia and many emerging market economies, steady NZ rates might also be to NZD's detriment.

In February, Radobank predicted NZD/USD 4 percent lower at US$0.66 before the end of May.

An RBC analyst also suggested betting against the kiwi. The analyst pointed to the RBNZ's previous form when it comes to U-turns on policy guidance.

In addition, watchers of NZD should not underestimate how highly correlated the currency is with the Australian dollar, which is tied to an even worse monetary policy outlook and which might suffer an 8-10 percent decline this year, per some currency forecasters.

Compare AUD-NZD Exchange Rates.

Japanese Yen Market Outlook

In early January, amid a “flash crash” USD/JPY briefly struck a 9-month low (yen high) of ¥104.65, and other yen rates also struck long-term lows. These values greatly flattered the yen and market rebounds followed quickly.

Since then, the yen has been the weakest major currency, and in March USD/JPY was 6 percent higher, back in the 111s.

In the second week of March, Goldman Sachs said it was betting on yen appreciation; it expected Japan’s currency to be “the main beneficiary of the current data backdrop.”

In late February, experts at French bank Credit Agricole also expressed bullishness, saying it was the right time to acquire yen.

Compare AUD-JPY Exchange Rates.