Australian Dollar Market Outlook
Improved risk appetite, thriving commodities markets and better data from China helped lift the Australian dollar through March and into the second half of April. Against the US dollar, the Aussie was quoted at US$0.715 on April-22.
In March, both Westpac and JP Morgan predicted an Aussie slide to US$0.68 in the second half of the year. Those banks were at least more optimistic than HSBC, which argued in April for US$0.66 based on housing market weakness, high debt-to-GDP levels and continued strength in the US dollar.
Bearishness wasn’t unanimous, though, with NAB forecasting Aussie appreciation at least until mid-year; it predicted US$0.74 by the end of June.
The RBA will be happy with a weaker currency, HSBC said. The central bank has recently shifted to a dovish bias (what should be an across-the-board negative for AUD), saying lower Australian interest rates will “likely be appropriate” if inflation doesn’t pick up.
Latest Currency News
The Swiss franc continued its shocking run of form on Tuesday, slipping against the euro to its weakest level in 6 months.
23 Apr, 2019 by
HSBC has reaffirmed its US66¢ year-end forecast for the Australian dollar, thereby signalling an upcoming 8 percent slide in the world’s fifth most traded currency.
22 Apr, 2019 by
What is arguably Southeast Asia’s most important exchange rate, Singapore dollar-Malaysian ringgit, leapt on Thursday to its highest level since November 2017, driven by FTSE Russell’s decision to reconsider Malaysia’s inclusion in an important bond index.
18 Apr, 2019 by
The Australian dollar is forecast to climb to US$0.74 in the coming months, supported by a commodities boom that has seen the price of Australia’s largest export, iron ore, climb to a 5-year high.
15 Apr, 2019 by
US Dollar Market Outlook
In the third week of April the Dollar Index was rallying strongly towards the mid-97s, slightly below major resistance at 97.70, a break of which would be massively positive for the greenback. The index was up 1.7 percent year-to-date.
The dollar’s strength comes in spite of a dovish surprise in March from the Federal Reserve, which ditched two interest rate hikes from its 2019 projections. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and other important central banks also turned dovish, removing much of the incentive for selling USD.
Bloomberg research warned in April of potential for a large upcoming move in the US dollar, up or down. Over the past quarter-century, three prominent troughs in the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index were followed by dollar moves over 6-month periods worth 10-15 percent. The index was trading in mid-April at a 5-year low.
Money Saving Guides
We take a look at why not using your bank for foreign exchange is generally a good idea to save money. As an example, we show 6 tables to compare the 4 big Aussie banks to two currency exchange specialists, OFX and Travelex.
Updated: 25 Mar, 2019
To help you choose between Travelex and Travel Money Oz the following live exchange rates table shows who has the best exchange rate when ordering foreign currency online.
Updated: 5 Mar, 2019
The holy grail when you send money abroad is finding an organisation that you can trust and one that offers the best exchange rates along with transparent, smart and straightforward customer service.
Updated: 28 Feb, 2019
We look at the Pros & Cons of using a Travel Card on your travels When planning an overseas trip figuring out how to access your money while away is complicated and often left to the last minute. You then end up paying high fees for changing foreign cash or with unexpected fees on your […]
Updated: 28 Feb, 2019
British Pound Market Outlook
Update 14-April: The pound hovered between US$1.30 and US$1.31 (in line with 3-month averages) after the EU granted the UK a Brexit extension until the end of October. No-deal risk is gone for now and anything is possible, including a new British prime minister, a general election and/or second referendum.
Experts at MUFG said in April that sterling would likely trade between US$1.30 and US$1.34 until more clarity emerged.
If an election is called, the pound could depreciate to US$1.24, a UBS analyst said, due to “heightened uncertainty” (the opposition Labour party is consistently ahead in the polls).
Goldman Sachs said in April that sterling was set for a “big finish” (higher) once the gridlock in the UK parliament ends and a deal is agreed and certainty found.
Earlier this year, currency analysts at HSBC estimated that the pound would be valued at levels near US$1.10 in the event of no-deal, near US$1.45 with a deal and at US$1.55 if Brexit is cancelled.
Reviews – Money Transfer & Currency Exchange in Australia
WorldFirst World Account – Independent BER Review World Account: A Summary WorldFirst, a market leader in the international payments space, offers a multi-currency “World Account” that allows businesses to hold, send and receive funds in 8 major currencies (GBP, EUR, USD, AUD, CAD, JPY, SGD and NZD). With a World Account, businesses can invoice customers […]
Updated: 23 Apr, 2019
TransferWise’s Borderless Account allows users to hold and convert funds in 40 different currencies and send and spend internationally, all at the “real” exchange rate and with exceptionally low service fees. Users can also receive major-currency payments free of charge.
Updated: 23 Apr, 2019
TransferWise has been making waves in the global payments market since it came on the scene back in 2011 and is undoubtedly one of the best services for sending money across borders.
Updated: 7 Apr, 2019
Fintech FX News
Remittances to low and middle-income countries reached a record high last year, the World Bank has said. Average transaction costs remain high, with an average of 7 percent paid to transfer $200 or equivalent.
Updated: 20 Apr, 2019
TransferWise is now officially offering PayNow as a funding option for users in Singapore, the company has announced.
Updated: 29 Mar, 2019
Citigroup’s announcement this week of plans to develop its own consumer-payments platform is the latest indication of a fightback by the banking establishment against fintech rivals that threaten its most lucrative markets.
Posted: 27 Mar, 2019
Fintech hotshot Revolut has written to millions of its customers to warn that new verification documents will be needed in the event of a no-deal Brexit; it has also called on the UK government to get serious about post-Brexit tech visas.
Updated: 25 Mar, 2019
Get a Better FX Deal when you Send and Spend Abroad.