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USD Market Outlook

In the third week of April the Dollar Index was rallying strongly towards the mid-97s, slightly below major resistance at 97.70, a break of which would be massively positive for the greenback. The index was up 1.7 percent year-to-date.

The dollar’s strength comes in spite of a dovish surprise in March from the Federal Reserve, which ditched two interest rate hikes from its 2019 projections. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and other important central banks also turned dovish, removing much of the incentive for selling USD.

Bloomberg research warned in April of potential for a large upcoming move in the US dollar, up or down. Over the past quarter-century, three prominent troughs in the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index were followed by dollar moves over 6-month periods worth 10-15 percent. The index was trading in mid-April at a 5-year low.

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Euro Market Outlook

Against the dollar, the euro remains weak. At $1.12 in early April, the euro was barely above March’s 21-month low of $1.118. Against the pound, it traded at £0.86 (a level it never sank to in 2018), but it fared better against the Australian dollar, with EUR/AUD rates in line with 2018’s average, at A$1.578.

Euro weakness has been driven by Brexit uncertainties and has followed March’s meeting of the ECB, at which the central bank said it will not raise interest rates until 2020 as part of an effort to lift the eurozone economy out of this “period of continued [economic] weakness.”

Forecasts: ING analysts wrote in March that they expect the low-yielding euro to continue to depreciate against USD over the coming months; ANZ said it saw rates falling as low as $1.08 by mid-year; Danske Bank said the euro would trade between $1.12 and 1.16 at year-end.

For EUR/GBP, Nordea Research thinks a no-deal Brexit will put £0.95 in play, a Norway-type Brexit (“Norway plus”) or permanent customs union will lead to £0.81-0.83, and Theresa May’s deal should see £0.83-0.84.

Australian Dollar Market Outlook

Improved risk appetite and thriving commodities markets helped lift the Australian dollar in April.

Per bank forecasts, the Australian dollar will strengthen slightly against the US dollar between now and mid-year, before weakening quite significantly into year-end.

In April, NAB predicted appreciation to US$0.74 before the end of June, from a mid-April rate of US$0.719.

In March, both Westpac and JP Morgan predicted an Aussie slide to US$0.68 in the second half of the year. Those banks were at least more optimistic than HSBC, which argued in February for US$0.66. ANZ said that the Aussie would lose value against resilient Asian currencies like the Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar.

In the second half of the year, major economic themes should re-emerge, many of which are negative; these include a housing market slump, the US-China trade spat and a weaker Chinese economy. In April, the Reserve Bank of Australia appeared to hint at a possible shift to a rate-cutting bias at its next meeting when it said it would “monitor developments and set monetary policy to support sustainable growth and inflation”—that would be an across-the-board negative for AUD.

British Pound Market Outlook

Update 14-April: The pound hovered between US$1.30 and US$1.31 (in line with 3-month averages) after the EU granted the UK a Brexit extension until the end of October. No-deal risk is gone for now and anything is possible, including a new British prime minister, a general election and/or second referendum.

Experts at MUFG said in April that sterling would likely trade between US$1.30 and US$1.34 until more clarity emerged.

If an election is called, the pound could depreciate to US$1.24, a UBS analyst said, due to “heightened uncertainty” (the opposition Labour party is consistently ahead in the polls).

Goldman Sachs said in April that sterling was set for a “big finish” (higher) once the gridlock in the UK parliament ends and a deal is agreed and certainty found.

Earlier this year, currency analysts at HSBC estimated that the pound would be valued at levels near US$1.10 in the event of no-deal, near US$1.45 with a deal and at US$1.55 if Brexit is cancelled.