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Canadian dollar market update
Outlook
CAD remains tethered to oil price moves and the pace of services activity. The loonie has shown choppy trading as oil wobbles and domestic data swing between soft and stable. Recent oil moves—an initial near-5% slide on easing US–Iran tensions, a rebound, then renewed pressure as services PMI came in soft—have kept the CAD on a knife-edge. With Canada’s November GDP flatlining and few major domestic catalysts near-term, the currency will mostly track crude price action and global risk sentiment. If oil slides further, the CAD is likely to soften; if oil stabilizes or climbs and services-sector momentum improves, the CAD could edge higher but gains may be capped by external headwinds. CAD/USD sits around 0.7307, about 1.1% above its 3-month average (0.7227), within a roughly 0.7087–0.7413 range seen recently. Oil sits at 67.91 USD, about 7.1% above its 3-month average (63.42) and within a wide 59.04–69.09 range; volatility there will continue to drive the loonie.
Key drivers
• Oil price trajectory and Canada’s commodity exposure shape the CAD more than most correlations. Current oil around 67.91 USD remains a key barometer, with a wide 59.04–69.09 range in sight.
• Domestic data and BoC policy: November GDP weakness has limited support; ongoing employment/inflation data and any shift in BoC communications or rate expectations could tilt CAD. BoC policy has been cautious, with the bank evaluated at 2.75% in mid-2025 and inflation expected near 2% over the medium term. Markets note that policy divergence with the Fed will continue to matter.
• Global risk sentiment and U.S. factors: the CAD tends to move with U.S. developments and risk appetite; softer U.S. data or a risk-off environment can weigh on the loonie, while a firmer U.S. backdrop can support it.
• Trade dynamics: tariff actions and evolving trade relationships between Canada, the U.S., and other partners can add an additional layer of volatility for the CAD.
BestExchangeRates.com keeps you up-to-date on Canadian dollar forecasts by collating the views of reliable FX forecasters and economists together with recent CAD price trends. This analysis covers a wide range of factors including economic indicators, geopolitical events, central bank policies, and technical analysis to provide a thorough and current outlook on currency trends.
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