Market Outlook for the Canadian dollar
It’s been a mixed bag of late for the Canadian dollar, with geopolitical risks, global interest rates and matters affecting global trade, rather than commodities or Canadian economic data, most influencing CAD rates.
In April and May, the loonie lost out slightly (by roughly 1 percent) against the US dollar and euro, but made small progress against the pound and Australian dollar.
For CAD, investors said in early June that they did not like the recent escalation in US-China trade tensions, which threatens the outlook for global trade and for commodities; nor did they like Washington’s announcement in late May of a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican goods — an illegal move under the new NAFTA 2.0 free-trade deal which some suspect might see the deal torn up.
For more details read the full article Canadian dollar news and forecasts.
Recent CAD News
The Australian dollar is at or near multi-month lows against a number of major currencies in spite of a rampant iron ore market — once a great influence on AUD.
Last update: 15 Jun, 2019
The UK economy is shrinking, as is the pound, which is buying less than 1.12 euros for the first time since mid-January. Investors are becoming increasingly unsettled over Brexit, particularly with Boris Johnson a hot favourite to become the UK’s next prime minister.
Last update: 11 Jun, 2019
Investors dumped the US dollar on Friday after US jobs data came in well short of estimates and cemented expectations for lower US interest rates. In the coming months, the greenback might maintain its value based on safe haven inflows and looser monetary policies in other parts of the world.
Last update: 7 Jun, 2019
The Australian dollar remains stable in the high US$0.69s following the RBA’s decision on Tuesday to cut Australian interest rates to a record low of 1.25 percent.
Last update: 4 Jun, 2019
Market Outlook for the US dollar
The US dollar has held its value this year despite a serious escalation in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the greenback is still considered a safer currency to own than most others. After grim employment data on June-7, the Dollar Index was up 0.5 percent on the year (it had fallen 2 percent from May’s 2-year high).
As in other parts of the world, interest rate cuts are now expected in the US following a drastic shift in economic forecasts. At least two Fed cuts are expected this year, with the first most likely to come in July.
Taking the blame for the economic downturn is US President Donald Trump, whose trade policies have set a ball rolling that could wipe $455bn from global output according to the IMF.
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Last update: 3 May, 2019
Market Outlook for the British pound
The pound slipped to a 5-month low of 1.12 euros in June. Against the US dollar, it climbed away from May’s multi-month low of $1.256 to $1.27, but was still 5 percent lower than March's high of $1.338.
Brexit paralysis in the UK has led to declines in business investment and two months of economic contraction (for the months of March and April).
Pound valuations will continue to fluctuate based on No-deal, Deal and Remain probabilities. No-deal prospects may increase if, as is predicted by betting markets, ardent Brexiteer Boris Johnson becomes the UK’s next prime minister. However, some banks argue that Johnson’s appointment would make little difference to no-deal or remain probabilities.
The pound is receiving some support from the Bank of England which, surprisingly, is the only major central bank to be considering raising interest rates this year.
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Market Outlook for the Euro
Against the US dollar, the euro struck a 2-year low of $1.111 on May-23, though that mostly reflected the greenback's broad-based strength.
Against the pound, the euro set a record 14-day winning streak in May, and is now near 3-month highs at £0.882; it was also strong against the Australian dollar, at A$1.617.
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