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Market Outlook for the Canadian dollar

The Canadian dollar stormed ahead in the second half of June, rising to a 16-week high against the US dollar and to 8-month highs against the euro, pound, Australian and New Zealand dollars. Against the Aussie, a minimal additional increase would take CAD to a 9-year high.

Supporting the loonie was a 10 percent rise in the oil price (oil is among Canada’s most exported products but is volatile and can’t be relied upon), a large and welcome jump in inflation, and dovishness at major central banks of the world, including the Federal Reserve, ECB and RBA.

Any delay to Canadian ratification of the USMCA trade deal (already accepted by Mexico) is likely to depress sentiment on Canada’s currency.

For more details read the full article Canadian dollar news and forecasts.

Market Outlook for the US dollar

The US dollar has held its value this year despite a serious escalation in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the greenback is still considered a safer currency to own than most others. After grim employment data on June-7, the Dollar Index was up 0.5 percent on the year (it had fallen 2 percent from May’s 2-year high).

As in other parts of the world, interest rate cuts are now expected in the US following a drastic shift in economic forecasts. At least two Fed cuts are expected this year, with the first most likely to come in July.

Taking the blame for the economic downturn is US President Donald Trump, whose trade policies have set a ball rolling that could wipe $455bn from global output according to the IMF.

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Market Outlook for the British pound

By some margin, the pound was the worst-performing major currency in the second quarter. It slipped in late June to multi-month lows against a number of important currencies, including the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, euro, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc.

Pound valuations will continue to fluctuate based on No-deal, Deal and Remain probabilities. No-deal prospects may increase if, as is widely expected, ardent Brexiteer Boris Johnson becomes the UK’s next prime minister. However, some banks argue that Johnson’s appointment would make little difference to no-deal or remain probabilities.

The pound is unlikely to receive much in the way of meaningful respite until November, analysts say, when hopefully the UK-EU Brexit arrangement, or lack thereof, is known (Boris Johnson insists that the UK will not seek any further Article 50 extensions beyond the October-31 deadline).

The pound would be doing far worse if it weren't receiving some support from the Bank of England which, surprisingly, is the only major central bank still considering higher interest rates in 2019.

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Market Outlook for the Euro

Euro sentiment dipped in mid-June after the ECB, like other major central banks of the world, ramped up its dovish rhetoric. It said that there was “considerable room” for further quantitative easing and that it would consider negative interest rates. Ordinarily, this would spark an extended euro decline but since other major currencies are also wrestling with easier central bank policies, euro depreciation may be contained.

In spite of Brexit, a slowdown in economic growth, Italian risks and persistently weak inflation — an important measure of inflation expectations fell in June to a record low — the euro did fantastically well against the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and British pound between mid-April and mid-June. Due to a stronger US dollar, EUR/USD was down 2 percent on the year at $1.12, close to long-term lows.

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