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Indian rupee market update
Outlook
The rupee faces near-term headwinds from a wider trade deficit and ongoing capital outflows, though RBI FX intervention provides some support. Times of India reports that analysts expect the rupee to weaken toward 90 per dollar by March 2026, with a credible improvement in U.S.-India trade talks offering a potential partial rebound.
Key drivers
- Trade deficit and tariff impacts: October 2025 trade deficit at about $41.7 billion, with U.S. tariffs weighing on Indian exports and the external gap.
- Capital outflows: Foreign Institutional Investors withdrew roughly $17.5 billion from Indian markets in 2025, adding downward pressure on the rupee.
- RBI interventions: The RBI has been active in the FX market, using spot operations and non-deliverable forwards to stabilize the rupee.
- FX forecast and negotiation risk: Markets (Times of India) note potential weakening toward 90 per dollar by March 2026, offset by possible recovery if U.S.-India trade talks progress.
- Price move context: INR/USD at 0.010916 (2.1% below its 3-month average of 0.011153), trading in a 4.4% range from 0.010907 to 0.011387. INR/EUR at 0.009227 (3.6% below its 3-month average of 0.009573), range 0.009227–0.009826. INR/GBP at 0.007999 (4.5% below its 3-month average of 0.008374), range 0.007999–0.008659. INR/JPY at 1.6996 (2.2% below its 3-month average of 1.7388), range 1.6996–1.7759.
BestExchangeRates.com keeps you up-to-date on Indian rupee forecasts by collating the views of reliable FX forecasters and economists together with recent INR price trends. This analysis covers a wide range of factors including economic indicators, geopolitical events, central bank policies, and technical analysis to provide a thorough and current outlook on currency trends.
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