Outlook
Oil remains volatile with Brent near multi-month highs as Middle East risks support prices. The April OPEC+ production rise could cap upside if balance improves, but regional tensions keep price risk elevated. Higher oil prices tend to lift Brent Crude OIL/USD and influence energy-linked FX moves.
Key drivers
• US/Israel strikes on Iran lift Brent and raise supply concerns.
• Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz heighten disruption risk.
• OPEC+ increases output by about 206,000 bpd from April to stabilise markets.
• Geopolitical tensions sustain broad oil-market volatility and spillovers to energy FX.
Range
Brent Crude OIL/USD near 84.53 (90-day high); range 59.04–84.53; 3-month average 65.78.
OIL/EUR near 72.83 (90-day high); range 50.26–72.83; 3-month average 55.97.
OIL/GBP near 63.35 (90-day high); range 43.98–63.35; 3-month average 48.75.
OIL/JPY near 13343 (90-day high); range 9139–13343; 3-month average 10266.
What could change it
• De-escalation or escalation of Middle East tensions altering supply risk.
• Unexpected shifts in OPEC+ policy or new non-OPEC supply.
• A material change in global demand data or a stronger USD altering oil demand.
