Outlook
OIL-linked currencies remain fragile as Brent trades near elevated levels due to Middle East tensions and shipping risks. The OIL/USD at 83.57 sits well above its three-month average, with a wide range of 59.04–84.53. OIL/EUR, OIL/GBP and OIL/JPY show similar strength, reflecting the oil backdrop.
Key drivers
- Escalating Middle East tensions and strikes on Iran support Brent.
- Hormuz shipping disruptions raise oil-flow concerns.
- OPEC+ output increase starting in April may cap further gains.
Range
OIL to USD: 83.57; 3-month average 66.21; range 59.04–84.53.
OIL to EUR: 71.99; 3-month average 56.34; range 50.26–72.76.
OIL to GBP: 62.56; 3-month average 49.07; range 43.98–63.27.
OIL to JPY: 13162; 3-month average 10336; range 9139–13327.
What could change it
- De-escalation of tensions and easing shipping risks.
- OPEC+ signaling restraint or further output changes.
- Weaker demand signals or macro data.
