The OIL currency has faced fluctuations in recent weeks amid significant news affecting the global oil market. As of September 9, 2025, the OIL to USD exchange rate stands at 67.95, which is 1.0% below its three-month average of 68.63. The currency has traded in a volatile range of 20.4%, oscillating between 65.50 and 78.85.
One contributing factor has been OPEC+'s announcement of a modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in October 2025. While this adjustment is aimed at balancing supply and demand, it is smaller than many anticipated and may influence the market's pricing strategies. Additionally, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 surplus forecast, suggesting an increased supply from the Americas will counterbalance declining output from Russia but keeps its 2025 price predictions unchanged.
Further complicating the scenario are the potential U.S. sanctions on Russian crude oil, which could tighten global supply and potentially elevate oil prices. As noted, following a significant airstrike by Russia on Ukraine, these sanctions have garnered attention and may introduce additional volatility into the market.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's plans to increase its oil production from 9.07 million to 9.98 million barrels per day is also likely to have an impact. Analysts suggest that this increase may enhance Saudi Arabia's market share within OPEC+, possibly shifting the dynamics of oil supply and price.
Currently, OIL to EUR is trading at 57.50, 2.2% below its three-month average of 58.80, within a volatile range of 22.7%, from 55.90 to 68.58. The OIL to GBP pair stands at 49.88, down 1.9% from its three-month average of 50.83, reflecting a 20.8% range from 48.46 to 58.55. Lastly, against the JPY, OIL is at 9,986, also 1.0% below its average of 10,089, with a range from 9,655 to 11,470.
As the market continues to react to these developments, stakeholders in the currency market should remain vigilant to shifts in policy and production that could have a wide-reaching impact on oil prices and currency valuations.
