Outlook
Oil markets stay volatile as Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions support Brent. An April OPEC+ production rise may cap gains and keep oil-linked currencies from breaking decisively higher.
Key drivers
• Middle East tensions and strikes on Iran push Brent higher, lifting Brent Crude OIL/USD and related crosses.
• Hormuz shipping disruptions add supply risk and a price premium.
• OPEC+ production increase of 206k bpd from April aims to stabilize markets.
• Geopolitical risk keeps volatility elevated and currency moves extended.
Range
Brent Crude OIL/USD: 59.04–77.99; 90-day high near 77.99.
OIL/EUR: 50.26–66.72; 90-day high near 66.72.
OIL/GBP: 43.98–58.18; 90-day high near 58.18.
OIL/JPY: 9,139–12,269; 90-day high near 12,269.
What could change it
• De-escalation in tensions could ease risk premium and soften OIL crosses.
• Larger OPEC+ supply moves could tilt prices and currencies lower.
• Stronger global demand signals or a weaker USD could support oil and related FX.
• Stability in Hormuz routes would reduce supply risk and pressure.
