Outlook
Oil prices look set to stay sensitive to geopolitical risk around Iran and Venezuela, U.S. action prospects, sanctions dynamics on Russia, and OPEC+ supply decisions. Stay alert to shifts in demand expectations as well. Oil-linked currencies—CAD, NOK and RUB—could track Brent moves, strengthening on higher oil and weakening on downside oil surprises.
Key drivers
- Geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela support Brent and oil-linked currencies while tensions persist.
- Potential U.S. military action against Iran adds risk premium to oil and may sustain higher levels.
- U.S. sanctions on Russia risk tighter global supply, reinforcing price support.
- OPEC+ paused further production increases for Q1 2026, aiming to manage supply amid moderating demand.
- CAD, NOK and RUB tend to move with oil; shifts in oil price can drive sentiment and policy expectations for these currencies.
Range
Brent Crude OIL/USD: 67.91; 7.1% above 3-month average of 63.42; range 59.04–69.09.
OIL/EUR: 57.47; 6.0% above 3-month average of 54.23; range 50.26–58.45.
OIL/GBP: 49.88; 5.4% above 3-month average of 47.34; range 43.98–50.86.
OIL/JPY: 10675; 7.8% above 3-month average of 9905; range 9139–10825.
What could change it
- De-escalation or escalation of Iran/Venezuela tensions altering risk premiums.
- Changes to sanctions on Russia or shifts in OPEC+ production policy.
- Surprises to global demand, particularly from China or other large importers.
- A stronger or weaker U.S. dollar influencing oil-denominated price levels.
