Bias: Bullish, as the USD is above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's potential for interest rate cuts contrasts with the stability of the CFP Franc, keeping demand for the USD strong despite recent dovish expectations.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices may support the USD, especially with geopolitical tensions influencing the broader market and creating uncertainty.
• One macro factor: Expectations for upcoming employment data in the U.S. suggest that any stronger figures could strengthen the USD further.
Range: The USD/XPF is likely to hold its position within the last 3-month range as it approaches recent highs.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data could push the USD higher.
• Downside risk: Dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials may lead to a USD decline.
