Exchange Rates & Currency Deals

Bias: Range-bound, around the 90-day average and in the middle of the three-month range; no clear breakout in recent price data. Tweet: USD/EUR remains range-bound near the mid of the 3-month band, with Fed hinting at easing in 2026 and the ECB remaining neutral. Oil volatility supports the USD; watch U.S. payrolls for near-term moves. Key drivers: - Rate gap: Fed hints at rate cuts toward a neutral stance in 2026, while the ECB is expected to keep policy in a neutral corridor; the gap remains modest. - Oil: Oil trades near the top of its range with volatility; higher oil tends to support the USD and can weigh on the euro through energy costs. - Macro factor: The trajectory of US payrolls and unemployment data shaping Fed easing expectations. Range: The pair is likely to drift within the three-month corridor, with only mild moves toward the range’s edges. What could change it: - Upside risk: stronger US payrolls or inflation prints that push back expected Fed easing. - Downside risk: softer US data or clearer signs of earlier Fed easing, strengthening the euro