Exchange Rates & Currency Deals

Bias USD/NZD remains bearish-to-range-bound, below its 90-day avg (90-day moving average) and in the lower half of the 3-month range. Fed easing toward neutral in 2026 while RBNZ cuts widen the policy gap, weighing on NZD. Risk-off mood and upcoming payrolls data could spark a breakout. Key drivers - Rate gap: The Fed is expected to ease gradually toward a neutral stance in 2026, while the RBNZ has already begun cutting, widening the policy gap that usually supports the USD while weighing on NZD. - Risk appetite: Cautious mood has weighed on the NZD, with risk-off flows keeping the kiwi under pressure and the USD comparatively firmer. - One macro factor: US payrolls and unemployment data ahead will influence Fed timing, shaping the dollar's trajectory versus the NZD. Range The pair is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with a tendency to test the lower end unless fresh data or policy shifts spark a breakout. What could change it - Upside risk: stronger US data or a hawkish Fed stance that keeps the dollar firm. - Downside risk: improving risk appetite and ongoing NZD support from policy easing that lifts the NZD, pushing USD/NZD lower