OIL Market Update
12 May 2026 • 00:45 GMT
Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, reaching $101.19—its highest in over three and a half years. This rally is mainly driven by ongoing disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, which are affecting global oil supply and shipping routes. The continued unrest and potential for prolonged supply issues keep prices volatile and could push them even higher, possibly approaching $120 if tensions remain elevated.
Compared to recent months, oil is now about 10.8% above its three-month average of 94.12, reflecting strong upward momentum. This increase impacts currencies of oil-exporting countries like Canada, Russia, and Norway, which have generally strengthened against the US dollar in response. Meanwhile, countries that rely heavily on imports might see their currencies weaken as oil prices stay high.
In this environment, traders should watch for further geopolitical developments that could influence oil and currency markets. The ongoing situation suggests oil prices could stay elevated, keeping related currencies sensitive to shifts in geopolitical risk and supply disruptions.