Bias: The AUD/FJD is above its 90-day average and sits in the upper half of the three-month range, giving a bullish-to-range-bound stance, though gains depend on global risk conditions.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The RBA has signalled possible rate hikes in 2026, widening the Australian-Fiji yield gap and supporting the AUD versus the FJD.
- Commodity demand: China’s slower growth softens Australian iron ore demand, weighing on the AUD and limiting further gains against the FJD.
- Macro factor: Australian CPI and labour data due this month could steer the near-term path of the AUD; a hotter print would reinforce rate expectations, while a soft print could ease them.
Range: Expect drift within the three-month range, with a tilt toward testing the upper end but not breaking.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: a clearer path to policy tightening from the RBA would bolster the AUD further against the FJD.
- Downside risk: softer Chinese demand for Australian exports remains a drag on the AUD.