AUD/HKD has risen 10 percent since the start of 2020 and nearly 28 percent since the peak of the markets pandemic shock in March.
In mid December AUD/HKD has hit it highest level (over 5.85) since June 2018. This is on the back of positive headlines that are boosting risk sentiment, prompting investment in equities and taking money away from the USD, to which the HK dollar is pegged.
In January the Hong Kong government reported unemployment was at its highest level for 16 years due to the impact of the pandemic, and suggested that this might worsen ahead of the Chinese New Year.
AUD/HKD forecasts are influenced by three factors; the coronavirus impact on and response by both economies, changes in the delta between interest rates in Australia and the US (as HKD is pegged to USD) and also the trade war between China and the US and increasingly Australia.
With the AUD continuing to enjoy higher highs and higher lows, our bias is for the AUD to enjoy further gains (against HKD) on the back of USD weakness.
Read more about AUD-USD forecasts here AUD-USD Forecasts for 2020.
You can also read our full Foreign Exchange Guide to Hong Kong.
You can read more about other AUD cross-rate forecasts here AUD Trends and Forecasts for 2020.
Whether the HK dollar will rise or drop in the future versus the Australian dollar is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider the current AUD-HKD relative value is to check the change in the exchange over a range of periods to the present day. The below table does this for periods going back 10 years.
12 Jan 2021
|1% ▼||1 Week|
20 Dec 2020
|1.4% ▲||30 Days|
21 Oct 2020
|8.4% ▲||90 Days|
20 Jan 2020
|11.7% ▲||1 Year|
21 Jan 2016
|9% ▲||5 Years|
22 Jan 2011
|22.6% ▼||10 Years|
AUD/HKD 10 year historic rates & change to 19-Jan-2021 : 5.9665