The FX market's bellwether for risk sentiment, AUD/JPY, is expected by NAB at ¥78 at the end of 2020.
National Australia Bank (NAB) are predicting the AUD/JPY rate to rise to ¥78 by the end of 2020.
You can read more about AUD cross-rate forecasts here AUD Trends and Forecasts for 2020.
Forecasts and predictions for the AUD/JPY exchange rate change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Australian and Japanese economies. This continually updated article reviews AUD to JPY bank forecasts and recent trends for both currencies.
This is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider an exchange rate's relative value is to look at the rate's history.
The following table looks at the change in the AUD to JPY exchange rate to the present day for periods going back upto 10 years:
|06 Aug 2020 : 76.3462||0.1% ▲||1 Week|
|14 Jul 2020 : 74.9436||2% ▲||30 Days|
|15 May 2020 : 68.6743||11.3% ▲||90 Days|
|14 Aug 2019 : 71.5384||6.9% ▲||1 Year|
|15 Aug 2015 : 91.7145||16.6% ▼||5 Years|
|16 Aug 2010 : 76.4350||0% ▲||10 Years|
AUD/JPY 10 year historic rates & change to 13-Aug-2020 : 76.4481
The bleak outlook in the US has added downward pressure on the world’s base currency and helped consolidate the Aussie dollars’ upturn. Although the Australian dollar has recently edged through the key 0.72 handle, a sustained move above this level has been hard to come by.
Further uncertainty in the US could push the AUD through 0.72 US cents.
In the second quarter of 2020 AUD staged a rapid recovery through the months of April, May and into June up 25% from its mid-March lows to US70c in early June. This is due more to the perceived benefits to Australia of an awakening post-pandemic Chinese economy than the political-social situtation in the US dpressing the USD.
The Aussie had been savaged in March sliding to US55 cents the lowest since 2003. Growing fears of the coronavirus outbreak moved the market into safer currencies such as the USD and away from AUD, NZD and CAD.
The virus was a double blow to the Aussie after the earlier threat of proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq had also pared back some of the gains the Aussie had made coming into the New Year.
The Australian dollar had started the new decade strongly climbing to multi-month highs helped along by cooling trade tensions between the United States and China and optimism for global economic growth in the year ahead.
The Aussie broke back over US70 cents on the final day of 2019 — a level not seen since mid year. During December the Australian dollar reversed direction (again) and climbed steadily back up against the US dollar on the back of the strength of the housing market and a market perception that further interest rate cuts were less likely.
The Japanese yen has held gains, since December 2019 it has increased over 2% against G10 majors. If we continue to see second waves in infections, safe haven demand for the yen could increase, especially as the US’s COVID-19 recovery is drawn out and outlook for the USD is negative, at least until the elections.