Weakness in AUD/NZD has been due to the different paths taken by the antipodean central banks on interest rates. In Q4 this has reversed due to the sharp increase in energy prices supporting AUD as Australia is a major coal and natural gas exporter.
The NZD has dropped back relative to AUD from mid September into October. The risk-off shift sparked by the Evergrande crisis, coupled with the emergence of new roadblocks to global recovery, seemingly impacting the Kiwi dollar more than the Aussie.
The sharp increase in energy prices has also supported AUD/NZD, as Australian export prices for coal and natural gas rose significantly.
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The spread of the Delta variant in Australia and Evergrande property debt crisis in China has forced investors to review commodity prices, further compounding AUD losses.
The AUD/NZD rate jumped nearly a 1 percent on the detection of a single Covid case in New Zealand.
The recent decision by the RBNZ to end its QE program, triggered a sharp drop in the AUD to NZD rate.
The emergence of Evergrande and other significant roadblocks such as energy shortages in Europe and China impacting the global economic recovery throughout September prompted a shift in the underlying risk narrative, causing unfavourable conditions for commodity currencies like the AUD. AUD Outlook
In mid-October the NZ dollar surged to US71¢ on the news from Statistics NZ that quarterly CPI rose 2.2 per cent and annual inflation accelerated to 4.9 per cent. The uptick in the NZD comes from expectations the RBNZ may raise interest rates more than and sooner than expected.NZD Outlook
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