AUD/NZD forecasts are influenced by three factors; the relative coronavirus impact on both economies, changes in the delta between interest rates in Australia and New Zealand and also the trade war between China and the US.
The AUD might break through recent resistance around 0.7340 over the next weeks. A clearcut Biden win and further positive COVID-19 vaccine news could help drive the AUD towards new highs closer to 0.74 US cents. The NZD followed a similar pattern to the AUD after the US election, benefiting from increased market appetite for risk and breaking through 0.68 US cents to mark fresh 20-month highs. The NZD also outperformed against other counterparts, surging nearly 3% against the yen, while testing new highs against the euro and GBP. The currency remains trading against AUD within the 0.93 and 0.95 mediumterm range.
National Australia Bank (NAB) have revised upwards their Aussie/Kiwi dollar forecasts now expecting the AUD/NZD rate at NZ$1.09 by June 2022, up from their previous forecast of NZ$1.06.
For 2020, NAB sees the Australian dollar at NZ$1.09 by year-end, down a little from the previous predicted NZ$1.10.
You can read more about other AUD cross-rate forecasts here AUD Trends and Forecasts for 2020.
Whether the Australian dollar will rise or drop in the future versus the NZ dollar is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider the current AUD-NZD relative value is to check the change in the exchange over a range of periods to the present day. The below table does this for periods going back 10 years.
12 Jan 2021
|0.5% ▲||1 Week|
20 Dec 2020
|1.2% ▲||30 Days|
21 Oct 2020
|1.1% ▲||90 Days|
20 Jan 2020
|3.9% ▲||1 Year|
21 Jan 2016
|0.8% ▲||5 Years|
22 Jan 2011
|17.1% ▼||10 Years|
AUD/NZD 10 year historic rates & change to 19-Jan-2021 : 1.0813