Weekly AUD FX Market Update
Updated 18 Jul 2026 • 23:45 GMT
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains in a critical position as it attempts to maintain gains against the US Dollar (USD), with mixed signals shaping its outlook. Despite struggling to break past the 0.7000 mark, the AUD's support remains intact, bolstered by steady domestic demand and a cautious approach from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Meanwhile, a strong US dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions present challenges, limiting the AUD's upward momentum and maintaining a bearish near-term bias.
Key watchpoints
- Monitor price action around the 0.7000 resistance level and 200-day SMA at 0.6880 for future AUD/USD movement.
- Assess the impact of domestic economic indicators and RBA policy on the AUD's strength and stability.
- Stay informed on the influence of global geopolitical developments and US dollar fluctuations on AUD performance.
Date: March 31, 2026
Key Developments Affecting the Polish Zloty (PLN):
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has reduced interest rates by 175 basis points to 4% in 2025, supporting credit recovery. (imf.org)
Inflation Trends
Inflation has declined into the target range, with headline and core inflation returning to the target, driven by goods, while services inflation has remained elevated. (imf.org)
Economic Growth
Poland's GDP is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2026, driven by a sharp increase in EU fund execution and monetary easing. (imf.org)
Banking Sector Outlook
The Polish Bank Association forecasts a significant drop in the banking sector's total net profit to approximately 30.8 billion zlotys by 2026, down from 44.1 to 46.1 billion zlotys in 2025. (trustfinance.com)
Currency Forecasts
UBS forecasts the EUR/PLN exchange rate to trade at 4.20 in Q1 2026, with slight fluctuations throughout the year, supported by Poland's robust growth outlook and the zloty's carry advantage over the euro. (ainvest.com)
These factors collectively influence the Polish zloty's performance in the currency market.