In 2021 currency forecasts are primarily influenced by the perceived relative coronavirus impact on economies and the success of government's response to the pandemic and impact on tourism.
Besides the protests last year AUD/THB forecasts have been primarily focused on the coronavirus impact on and response by both economies, in particular the drastic impact to tourism for Thailand.
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Asian currencies including Thai baht have been hit by the hawkish tilt from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who signalled in September that the bond tapering is expected to start in November.
Protesters had demanded the removal of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a new constitution and reduction in the powers of the king. Normally events such as this would be seen as impacting the Thai tourist industry and thus also the Baht, however tourism is minimal during the coronavirus pandemic.
Thailand has navigated Covid better than other Southeast Asian countries (Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia) but the recent new wave could see many businesses struggle. Particularly the food industry.
The emergence of Evergrande and other significant roadblocks such as energy shortages in Europe and China impacting the global economic recovery throughout September prompted a shift in the underlying risk narrative, causing unfavourable conditions for commodity currencies like the AUD. AUD Outlook
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