Forecasts for AUD to THB
Recent forecasts indicate that the Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to face continued pressure against the Thai baht (THB), primarily driven by shifts in market sentiment and economic fundamentals in both countries. Despite upbeat Australian trade figures and decent retail sales growth, the AUD has weakened due to a decline in risk appetite among investors. Analysts are closely monitoring developments related to potential tariffs from a prospective Trump administration, which would likely impact demand from China—Australia's key trading partner. The AUD is currently trading at 21.37 against the THB, which is 2.8% below its 3-month average, reflecting a market that has seen relatively stable trading within a 7.6% range.
On the other hand, the Thai baht has remained weak, fluctuating around the 34 level against the US dollar, which is seen as representing good value for international visitors amidst a rebound in tourism. Reports of 1 million tourists visiting Thailand in July suggest a recovery towards pre-COVID levels, potentially providing a boost for the THB. Additionally, the influence of rising oil prices is noteworthy as the recent spike in oil prices—up 9.5% above their 3-month average—could have implications for the THB, particularly as Thailand is one of the largest oil producers in Asia. Therefore, as FX analysts look ahead, the interaction between commodity prices, global economic conditions, and geopolitical developments will be critical in shaping the AUD/THB outlook.
