AUD Weekly Overview: Testing Key Levels
Updated 28 Jul 2026 • 23:45 GMT
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is currently testing the critical 0.7000 level against the USD, following a recent upswing fueled by high interest-rate differentials and strong commodity prices. Despite the recent rally and constructive technical setup above the 200-day SMA, the future trajectory of the AUD will be heavily influenced by developments in the US, including any changes in interest-rate expectations and geopolitical risks. The Reserve Bank of Australia's input, with events such as the upcoming CPI report, will also be pivotal in shaping market expectations.
Key watchpoints
- Technical Thresholds: Monitor if AUD/USD can sustain a breakout above 0.7000, which may lead to further upside driven by short-covering.
- Central Bank Signals: Keep an eye on RBA's communications and economic data releases, particularly the CPI, for cues on monetary policy direction.
- Global Influences: US interest-rate decisions and geopolitical developments, particularly related to energy prices, could significantly impact AUD movements.
31 March 2026
1. Hryvnia's Recent Performance
The Ukrainian hryvnia has weakened against the US dollar, reaching an all-time low of 44.25 UAH/USD in March 2026. (tradingeconomics.com)
2. National Bank's Response
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) attributes the devaluation to increased demand for foreign currency amid geopolitical uncertainties. The NBU is prepared to intervene to stabilize the forex market. (interfax.com)
3. 2026 Budget Forecasts
The 2026-2028 budget declaration projects a 4.5% GDP growth in 2026, with the hryvnia expected to average 44.7 UAH/USD for the year and end at 44.8 UAH/USD. (ukranews.com)
4. Expert Exchange Rate Predictions
Financial experts anticipate a controlled weakening of the hryvnia in 2026, with the dollar potentially reaching 45 UAH and the euro 50 UAH. (finance.liga.net)
5. NBU's Monetary Policy
The NBU continues to implement a "managed flexibility" approach, aiming to balance market expectations and price stability without allowing sharp currency fluctuations. (unn.ua)
These developments indicate that while the hryvnia faces downward pressure, the NBU is actively working to maintain stability through strategic interventions and policy measures.