CAD Market Update
Updated 25 Jul 2026 • 23:45 GMT
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been influenced by softer than expected inflation data, which decreased hopes for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to an annual rate of 2.8%, leading to a rise in the USD/CAD pair, moving closer to 1.4060. While there is some support from higher oil prices, continued U.S. Dollar strength amid geopolitical tensions has applied additional pressure on the loonie. According to commentary from Commerzbank, the downtrend in USD/CAD is expected to persist unless there is sustained weakness in the U.S. Dollar.
Key watchpoints:
- Monitor the Bank of Canada's policy signals following recent CPI data.
- Track U.S. Dollar movements, particularly in the context of geopolitical developments, impacting USD/CAD.
- Observe global oil prices as they provide baseline support for the Canadian Dollar.
Date: March 31, 2026
Key Developments Affecting the Polish Zloty (PLN):
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has reduced interest rates by 175 basis points to 4% in 2025, supporting credit recovery. (imf.org)
Inflation Trends
Inflation has declined into the target range, with headline and core inflation returning to the target, driven by goods, while services inflation has remained elevated. (imf.org)
Economic Growth
Poland's GDP is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2026, driven by a sharp increase in EU fund execution and monetary easing. (imf.org)
Banking Sector Outlook
The Polish Bank Association forecasts a significant drop in the banking sector's total net profit to approximately 30.8 billion zlotys by 2026, down from 44.1 to 46.1 billion zlotys in 2025. (trustfinance.com)
Currency Forecasts
UBS forecasts the EUR/PLN exchange rate to trade at 4.20 in Q1 2026, with slight fluctuations throughout the year, supported by Poland's robust growth outlook and the zloty's carry advantage over the euro. (ainvest.com)
These factors collectively influence the Polish zloty's performance in the currency market.