CAD - Recent Performance
The Canadian dollar was the worst performing G10 currency in the first quarter of 2018.
Against the US dollar, CAD fell to buy 77.5 US cents (USD/CAD 1.29), but this was in line with average rates over the preceding twelve months.
Against the euro, CAD fell to an 8-year low but recovered somewhat before March was out to buy 63 euro cents (EUR/CAD 1.587).
For CAD, little respite is likely in the months ahead according to TD Securities, which described the currency in March as “really expensive.” A senior analyst at the firm explained that CAD was the “most exposed [major currency] from a global macro level and also from the local level of trade risk.”
Trade remains a dominant theme affecting CAD. Washington stepped up its protectionist measures in the first quarter with tariffs on steel and aluminium products (Canada is the number one exporter of such products to the US) and $60 billion worth of Chinese goods. Being a global growth-sensitive currency, CAD will suffer should international trade tensions escalate, not to mention the ramifications for ongoing NAFTA negotiations between Canada, the US and Mexico. The market consensus remains for an 8-10% drop in CAD's valuation should NAFTA negotiations fail.