CHF/AUD Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Swiss National Bank's steady 0% policy rate contrasts with the Reserve Bank of Australia's signals for potential rate hikes.
• Risk/commodities: The Australian dollar benefits from high metals prices, while the overall risk environment remains uncertain, affecting demand for the AUD.
• One macro factor: China's uneven economic recovery dampens demand for Australian exports, which could limit further strength in the AUD.
Range: The CHF/AUD rate is likely to hold within its recent stable range but may also drift slightly lower depending on economic data releases.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A strong recovery in China's economy could boost demand for Australian exports, strengthening the AUD.
• Downside risk: Continued strength of the Swiss franc may lead to actions by the Swiss National Bank regarding interest rates, impacting the CHF negatively.