The exchange rate forecast for the CHF to AUD appears to be influenced by a mix of sentiment surrounding both currencies, particularly amid external market pressures and domestic economic developments.
Recent trading patterns indicate that the Australian dollar (AUD) has been volatile, primarily driven by fluctuations in market risk appetite. As noted, the AUD initially faced challenges due to a decline in market mood but managed to recover during trading sessions as risk appetite improved. Analysts suggest that without significant domestic data, the AUD's performance will remain closely tied to global market dynamics.
On the Swiss franc (CHF) front, the outlook is more precarious. The imposition of a 39% tariff by the U.S. on Swiss exports has significantly impacted the Swiss economy, leading to a 5.3% decline in exports in Q2 2025. This has raised concerns about the stability of Switzerland’s export-led economy, with indications that some firms may seek to relocate to the U.S. to reduce costs. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported substantial losses and has responded by cutting interest rates to zero, which weighs on the CHF.
The International Monetary Fund's reduced growth forecast for Switzerland, currently at just 1.3%, indicates that geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties are significantly affecting economic expectations. Consequently, the CHF may struggle against the AUD, particularly with the recent trading data showing the CHF to AUD pair trading at 60-day lows near 1.8866, which is 1.1% below its three-month average.
Economists anticipate that continued turmoil in Swiss exports due to tariffs, combined with the AUD's potential resilience due to its ties to commodities and shifting investment strategies, could position the AUD favorably against the CHF in the near-term outlook, despite the inherent volatility in the AUD driven by global risk sentiments. Overall, developments in trade policies and economic performance will likely continue to steer the exchange rate between these two currencies.
