Outlook
The CHF remains bid as a safe-haven currency in early 2026, supported by ongoing global uncertainty. The Crans-Montana fire adds regulatory scrutiny and may weigh sentiment modestly, but safe-haven demand and Swiss fundamentals keep the franc firm. Markets have priced in the possibility of SNB action if the currency stays strong, with MUFG noting risk of negative rates or FX intervention in that scenario. The 2025 tariff shock on Swiss exports still looms as a growth headwind for Switzerland’s export-led economy, contributing to a cautious backdrop for the franc. Near term, the CHF could stay supported versus USD and JPY, with a potential for modest strength against EUR and GBP if risk-off conditions persist.
Key drivers
- Safe-haven demand: CHF tends to gain when global risk is elevated, including during US political tensions and broader uncertainty.
- SNB policy expectations: Markets price in potential SNB moves (negative rates or direct FX intervention) if the franc remains elevated; MUFG has flagged this risk.
- External growth risk from tariffs: The 2025 Swiss export tariff shock continues to weigh on growth prospects, supporting CHF strength as a defensive option.
- Regulatory sentiment after Crans-Montana: Increased safety and regulatory scrutiny could dampen investor sentiment toward Switzerland, adding a modest negative tone to domestic risk appetite.
Range
CHFUSD at 1.2938 (3-month average 1.257; range 1.2335–1.3115; 2.9% above 3-month avg)
CHF/EUR at 1.0909 (3-month average 1.0761; range 1.0648–1.0920; 1.4% above 3-month avg)
CHF/GBP at 0.9450 (3-month avg 0.9402; range 0.9298–0.9566; 0.5% above 3-month avg)
CHF/JPY near 200.6 (3-month avg 196.1; range 189.5–200.6; 2.2% above 3-month avg)
What could change it
- SNB policy shift: a surprise move to cut rates into negative territory or to intensify FX intervention could push the franc higher or lower, depending on the action.
- Change in global risk sentiment: a shift toward higher risk appetite would likely ease safe-haven demand for CHF, weakening it vs USD and JPY.
- Swiss inflation and growth signals: faster inflation or improving growth could reduce deflation risk and lessen incentives for aggressive SNB action, potentially softening the franc.
- Trade environment evolution: removal of tariffs or new Swiss export opportunities could improve growth sentiment and ease CHF strength.
- US political developments: greater political stability or resolution of tensions could dampen the safe-haven bid for CHF.
