Outlook
The Swiss franc is being kept on a cautious path by a restrained SNB and a still-fragile export outlook. The SNB left policy at 0% as inflation sits near target, keeping door open to adjustments if the franc strengthens or if eurozone momentum shifts. MUFG Bank flags the risk of negative rates if the franc continues to appreciate, while UBS suggests stronger eurozone growth could ease CHF pressure and potentially allow a rate move before 2027. The July 2025 39% US tariff on Swiss exports adds a new layer of uncertainty for Switzerland’s export-led economy and can influence currency moves via trade sentiment and risk appetite. Against this backdrop, CHF is testing multi-month highs against the dollar and remaining bid to other majors, with broad ranges in recent trading.
Key drivers
- SNB policy stance and inflation: policy rate at 0% with inflation forecast near target; policy remains cautious.
- Franc strength risk: MUFG Bank sees a risk of negative rates if the franc stays strong.
- Eurozone growth influence: UBS notes stronger eurozone growth could reduce CHF appreciation pressure and may open room for a rate rise before 2027.
- Trade/export dynamics: a large US tariff on Swiss exports in 2025 adds regional export vulnerability and currency volatility.
- Price action context: CHF to USD near 90-day highs at about 1.2821; CHF to EUR around 1.0846; CHF to GBP around 0.9396; CHF to JPY near 199.6, with notable ranges to monitor.
Range
CHF/USD: 1.2335–1.2821
CHF/EUR: 1.0648–1.0846
CHF/GBP: 0.9298–0.9566
CHF/JPY: 189.5–200.6
What could change it
- A surprise SNB policy shift (to negative or to a higher rate) or new guidance on FX.
- A sustained move in the franc either beyond the current ranges or a notable slowdown in its appreciation.
- A clear shift in eurozone growth momentum that alters CHF upside pressure.
- Further changes in global trade policy or sentiment, especially around Switzerland’s export exposure.
- Inflation data surprises that push the SNB to re-evaluate its stance.
