Outlook
The CHF remains bid on risk-off sentiment and Swiss safe-haven appeal, but near-term gains may be capped by expectations of the SNB easing path. The Crans-Montana bar fire and ongoing US political tensions support a cautious stance toward risk assets, potentially underpinning the CHF against higher-risk peers. At the same time, speculation that the SNB could cut rates or reintroduce negative rates suggests policy risk for the CHF: if easing is confirmed, the currency could soften versus the USD and EUR even as safety demand persists in sharper risk-off episodes.
Key drivers
- Safe-haven demand persists on geopolitical tensions and questions around US policy independence (support for CHF in risk-off environments).
- Speculation of SNB rate cuts or reintroduction of negative rates to counter deflationary pressures could weigh on CHF if policy path is viewed as highly accommodative.
- Domestic risk sentiment linked to the Crans-Montana incident may add a headwind for Switzerland, influencing investor sentiment more than fundamentals.
- The 2025 tariff shock on Swiss exports remains a drag on Swiss growth, reinforcing uncertainty around SNB policy and CHF direction.
- Market structure shows CHF at multi-month highs versus USD and EUR in recent price action, with current levels trading above three-month averages and within well-watched ranges.
Range
CHF/USD current 1.3082; 3-month average 1.2556; range 1.2335-1.3115.
CHF/EUR current near 1.0932; 3-month average 1.0756; range 1.0648-1.0932.
CHF/GBP current 0.9478; 3-month average 0.9402; range 0.9298-0.9566.
CHF/JPY current 200.4; 3-month average 195.8; range 189.5-200.6.
What could change it
- A shift in global risk appetite, such that US political developments ease or escalate, altering safe-haven demand for CHF.
- The SNB delivering clear policy guidance or actual rate moves (cuts or a move to negative rates) that alter the rate differential and carry appeal.
- Surprising Swiss macro data (inflation/deflation, growth) or a reversal of export shocks that alters SNB policy expectations.
- A major change in global central-bank stance (particularly the Fed) that changes relative yield advantages and risk sentiment.
- New developments around the Crans-Montana incident or related regulatory changes affecting Swiss markets.
