Outlook
The CHF remains supported by risk-off sentiment and policy uncertainty around the Fed and SNB. Near term, safe-haven demand can keep the franc firm on spikes in risk aversion, while possible SNB easing or negative rates could limit gains or soften the currency if deflation risks ease or policy pivots are signaled.
Key drivers
- Safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions and questions over the Federal Reserve's independence, boosting CHF in risk-off episodes.
- SNB policy path: speculation about further rate cuts or reintroducing negative rates could pressure CHF, while clearer easing one way or another may cap or extend moves.
- US political developments and Fed independence concerns, which can wobble USD sentiment and influence CHF crossings.
- External trade headwinds from the July 2025 Swiss export tariff episode, which markets view as a constraint on Switzerland’s external outlook and can affect CHF dynamics.
- Domestic Swiss events such as the Crans-Montana bar fire raising regulatory and safety concerns, potentially impacting risk appetite and safe-haven flows.
- The CHF’s price action shows a risk-off bid at times of tension, with CHF strength versus USD and EUR amid uncertainty.
Range
CHF to USD current 1.3059, range 1.2335–1.3115. CHF to EUR current near 1.0908, range 1.0648–1.0908. CHF to GBP current 0.9452, range 0.9298–0.9566. CHF to JPY current 200.0, range 189.5–200.6.
What could change it
- A clearer or more dovish SNB path (further easing or negative rates) could soften the CHF.
- A shift in US policy or improved risk appetite reducing safe-haven demand could weigh on CHF and push USDCHF and EURCHF lower.
- Escalation in geopolitical tensions or fresh risk-off shocks could reinforce CHF strength.
- Renewed concerns about Swiss export competitiveness or larger-scale domestic or regulatory developments could alter CHF flows.
