Outlook
The Swiss franc remains well bid as a safe-haven currency amid ongoing global uncertainties. The SNB could reintroduce negative interest rates if the CHF stays too strong, aiming to curb deflation and support growth. Broader risk sentiment, trade dynamics, and policy divergence with major central banks will continue to shape the CHF in the near term.
Market developments in 2025 show the CHF trading at record levels against the Euro and benefiting from haven demand, while exporters face headwinds from a stronger currency. A notable shock came in July 2025 when tariffs of up to 39% were imposed on Swiss exports, adding further pressure to an export-led Swiss economy. These dynamics underscore the potential for shifting CHF momentum depending on policy signals, inflation readings, and global risk appetite. (Swissinfo; InvestingLive; AINVEST)
Key drivers
• Safe-haven demand remains a key support for the CHF amid geopolitical tensions and global instability. (Swissinfo)
• SNB policy risk: the possibility of reintroducing negative interest rates if the franc remains strong to prevent deflation and support growth. (InvestingLive)
• Exporter sensitivity: a stronger CHF continues to weigh on Swiss exporters and the trade balance, influencing Swiss growth and policy considerations. (AINVEST)
• Currency shocks from policy actions: ongoing developments such as tariffs and global policy divergence can trigger sudden CHF moves. July 2025 saw a 39% tariff imposed on Swiss exports, highlighting how policy shifts can affect the currency. (Market data)
• Haven-driven strength against the Euro: the CHF rose to a 10-year high against the Euro in late 2025, reflecting persistent inflation expectations and global demand for safety. (Swissinfo)
Range
CHFUSD at 1.3025, 3.1% above its 3-month average of 1.2634, having traded in a relatively stable 6.2% range from 1.2350 to 1.3115
CHFtoEUR at 1.0973, 1.8% above its 3-month average of 1.0782, having traded in a stable 3.1% range from 1.0648 to 1.0973
CHFtoGBP at 0.9544, 1.4% above its 3-month average of 0.9405, having traded in a stable 2.9% range from 0.9298 to 0.9566
CHFtoJPY at 198.9, 0.9% above its 3-month average of 197.2, having traded in a stable 5.4% range from 193.0 to 203.4
What could change it
• A clear policy shift by the SNB toward tightening or a more aggressive path to normalization could strengthen the CHF or limit its gains, depending on inflation and growth signals. (InvestingLive)
• A sustained improvement in global risk appetite or a meaningful retreat in safe-haven demand could weaken the CHF versus other currencies. (Swissinfo)
• Significant changes in Swiss trade dynamics or persistent external policy shocks (e.g., tariffs or sanctions) could alter CHF exposure and currency levels. (AINVEST)
• Key domestic data surprises (inflation, GDP, or external demand) could trigger revisions in SNB expectations and impact near-term CHF moves. (Market observations)
