Bias: Range-bound, with EUR/DKK near the 90-day average and in the lower half of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The ECB’s policy stance remains more restrictive than Denmark’s peg defense, supporting a steadier euro against the krone.
- Risk/commodities: Oil is trading above its 3-month average with increased volatility, lifting euro-area inflation expectations and lending modest support to EUR versus the DKK.
- Macro factor: The ECB is projected to keep policy steady in 2026, which reduces the chance of outsized euro moves.
Range: Expect EUR/DKK to drift within its 3-month band, with a mild tilt toward the lower end if oil maintains strength.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A hawkish ECB signal or stronger euro-zone data could push EUR higher against the krone.
- Downside risk: A renewed Danish rate-defense push or a risk-off move that strengthens the krone could push EUR/DKK lower.