Bias: Range-bound, near the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: ECB policy remains broadly neutral while Danmarks Nationalbank defends the euro peg; the small gap shields EUR/DKK from big moves.
- Oil: Oil holds above its recent average with heightened volatility, a dynamic that tends to lift the dollar and pressure the euro, modestly capping currency strength.
- Macro: Eurozone inflation easing and a neutral ECB stance point to a steady euro backdrop versus the Danish krone.
Range: Expect EUR/DKK to drift within the recent 3-month band, with modest tests toward the upper side on firmer data but few breakthroughs.
What could change it:
Upside risk: A surprise uptick in Eurozone growth or a hawkish tilt from the ECB could push the pair toward the upper end.
Downside risk: Renewed risk-off mood or stronger Danish rate action to defend the peg could push EUR/DKK toward the lower end.
