Bias: EUR/HUF is bullish-to-range-bound: the pair is above its 90-day average and sits in the upper half of the recent three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: ECB policy remains neutral while Hungary keeps a relatively high rate; this mix tends to keep EUR/HUF within a defined range rather than trend decisively.
- Oil trend: Oil sits near recent highs with notable volatility, lifting euro-area inflation risk and providing mild upside for the euro against the forint.
- Macro factor: Eurozone inflation is expected to ease in coming quarters, supporting a calmer ECB stance and limiting sustained moves in EUR/HUF.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the recent three-month range, with occasional tests of the upper end but no clear breakout.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Strong euro-area data or a clearer ECB signal to maintain a tighter stance could push EUR/HUF toward the upper end of its range.
- Downside risk: Softer Hungarian data or a pivot in domestic policy that strengthens the forint could pull EUR/HUF toward the lower end.
