The recent forecasts for the EUR to HUF exchange rate suggest an upward trend for the euro, influenced by several key factors. Analysts note that the euro has gained support against a backdrop of USD weakness, benefitting from the anticipated policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve going into 2026. Although recent inflation data from the Eurozone has shown a slight uptick, with inflation increasing to 2.2% in November, the ECB remains committed to its long-term policies, avoiding direct interventions in foreign exchange markets. This commitment has been reinforced by ECB officials emphasizing stability around the current inflation level.
Recent price data indicate that the EUR to HUF exchange rate is sitting at 30-day highs near 385.2, which is just 0.5% below its three-month average of 387.1. The rate has remained stable, fluctuating in a narrow band between 380.8 and 393.0. Such stability reflects ongoing economic pressures faced by Hungary and the wider Eurozone, with geopolitical factors, particularly the war in Ukraine, continuing to impact both regions' economic situations.
On the other hand, the Hungarian forint is influenced by a range of domestic factors, including a recent financial shield agreement with the United States designed to bolster Hungary's economy amid challenges from EU funding freezes. The National Bank of Hungary has maintained its key policy rate at 6.5% as part of its efforts to control inflation, which remains above the target set by the IMF. These actions suggest a tight monetary policy in Hungary that may impact the forint's performance against the euro.
Also noteworthy is the recent trend in oil prices, which have reached 30-day lows near $61.20, down 4.9% from their three-month average. Given the significant correlation between oil prices and both currencies, continuing volatility in the oil market could have indirect implications for the EUR/HUF exchange rate as fluctuations in energy prices affect broader economic conditions in the Eurozone and Hungary.
Overall, the interplay of ECB policy stances, ongoing geopolitical tensions, the financial health initiatives in Hungary, and energy market trends are expected to shape the EUR to HUF trajectory in the near term, with analysts projecting potential for further strengthening of the euro, contingent upon inflation stabilization and policy responses from both monetary authorities.
