The exchange rate of the Euro (EUR) against the Hungarian Forint (HUF) is currently experiencing heightened volatility, influenced by both regional economic developments and broader geopolitical factors. Recent forecasts indicate that the EUR is facing resistance due to ongoing concerns around the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has dampened investor confidence and limited gains for the euro despite some positive economic indicators from the Eurozone.
As of early November 2025, the EUR to HUF exchange rate is notably at 90-day lows, trading around 380.8 HUF to 1 EUR, which is approximately 1.8% below its three-month average of 387.9 HUF. The currency has fluctuated within a relatively stable range of 380.8 to 393.2 HUF over this period. Analysts suggest that the euro is struggling against the forint, which has appreciated significantly, reaching an 18-month high at 385 HUF per EUR due to Hungary's higher key interest rates and stabilizing inflation.
The outlook for the EUR is further complicated by the European Central Bank's shift to a dovish monetary policy. Although rates were raised to 4.0% in 2024 to combat inflation, forecasts now suggest a potential cut to 3.5% by late 2025, which could narrow the interest rate differential with the US Federal Reserve, thereby impacting the euro's attractiveness to investors. Furthermore, anticipated geopolitical developments, particularly concerning the ongoing war in Ukraine, will likely continue to introduce uncertainty into the Eurozone's economic performance.
Conversely, the Hungarian economy is currently benefiting from a stable current account surplus and solid interest rates. Commentary from economists indicates that the National Bank of Hungary's decision to maintain its base rate at 6.5%, the highest in the EU, is providing support to the forint. This monetary discipline is viewed as crucial in preventing depreciation against the EUR.
Oil price movements may also impact the EUR/HUF exchange rate. With recent oil prices at around 62.67 USD, 3.2% below the three-month average of 64.76 USD, fluctuations in oil costs could indirectly affect inflation rates and energy costs within the Eurozone, thereby influencing the euro's performance.
In conclusion, the EUR/HUF exchange rate is shaped by a complex interplay of monetary policies, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic indicators. Investors and businesses engaged in international transactions should closely monitor these factors to effectively navigate potential currency fluctuations.
