The EUR/HUF exchange rate appears to be range-bound in the near term.
The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains its cautious approach to interest rates as it balances inflation control with economic growth. The lack of rate changes, combined with warnings from ECB President Lagarde about a stronger euro potentially impacting inflation, plays a significant role in the euro's positioning. Simultaneously, Hungary's national bank's disciplined monetary policy has led to recent appreciation in the forint, which adds pressure on the euro. Both currencies are affected by ongoing geopolitical issues and inflation trends, notably Hungary's core inflation rising above acceptable levels.
Over the next few months, the exchange rate is expected to remain within a stable range, reflecting recent trading patterns. Upside risks could stem from stronger-than-expected economic data in the Eurozone, while downside risks include worsening geopolitical tensions or adverse fiscal developments in Hungary.
Recent oil price volatility may also indirectly influence the euro's value, given its relation to global economic sentiment.
