Bias: The outlook for EUR/HUF is range-bound, as the pair is hovering near the 90-day average and positioned in the middle of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- The European Central Bank is maintaining a neutral monetary policy, with rates stable, while the National Bank of Hungary keeps rates elevated to combat inflation.
- Current oil prices are above their 3-month average, which may lend some support to the HUF, reflecting Hungary's sensitivity to energy costs.
- Hungary’s recent inflation figures indicate upward pressure, potentially affecting the central bank’s future interest rate decisions, which in turn influences the HUF's stability.
Range: EUR/HUF is likely to drift within the established 3-month range, without significant movement towards extremes in the near term.
What could change it:
- An increase in Eurozone inflation or unexpected ECB policy changes could provide upside risk for the EUR.
- A worsening of Hungary's economic outlook or further political instability could result in downside risk for the HUF.
