EUR/ILS Outlook:
The EUR/ILS exchange rate is likely to decrease as it trades 2.6% below its 90-day average and near recent lows. The current geopolitical tensions and high oil prices weigh on the euro's value.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank faces inflation pressures, while the Bank of Israel has recently cut interest rates, strengthening the shekel.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices at 90-day highs negatively impact the euro, a net energy importer, creating higher inflation risks.
• One macro factor: Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East, increase risk off flows, favoring the USD and CHF over the euro.
Range:
Expect the EUR/ILS to test recent lows and remain within its stable 5.2% range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A de-escalation in Middle East tensions could strengthen the euro.
• Downside risk: Continued volatility in oil prices could pressure the euro further.