EUR/NGN Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways due to the rate being below its recent average and near recent lows, lacking a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining a neutral policy stance, while the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is prioritizing exchange rate stability, potentially supporting the naira against the euro.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which may boost Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings but adds volatility to the naira’s performance.
• One macro factor: Nigeria's economy is projected to grow at 4.49%, while inflation is expected to moderate, suggesting a gradual improvement in economic conditions.
Range: The EUR/NGN is likely to drift within its recent range, holding steady due to mixed signals.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in Eurozone economic data or a resolution in geopolitical tensions could strengthen the euro.
• Downside risk: Continued stability in the naira, supported by effective CBN policies, might further weaken the euro against it.