EUR/NGN Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, impacted by ECB's cautious stance.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates contrasts with the Central Bank of Nigeria's higher benchmark to combat inflation.
- Risk/commodities: Current global oil prices are above average, potentially supporting the Naira due to its reliance on oil revenue for economic stability.
- One macro factor: The Eurozone's inflation has fallen below the ECB's target, raising concerns about future rate cuts which could weaken the Euro.
Range:
The EUR/NGN pair is expected to drift within its recent 3-month range as pressure on the Euro persists.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A shift in ECB policy favoring interest rate hikes could strengthen the Euro.
- Downside risk: Continued global economic pressures or increased speculation against the naira may weaken its position further.