Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as EUR/NGN sits below the 90-day average and in the lower half of its three-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The ECB is expected to keep policy neutral with steady rates, while the CBN prioritises exchange-rate stability, putting mild pressure on the naira.
• Risk/commodities: Oil is near highs with higher volatility, supporting Nigeria’s export outlook and offering some support to the naira.
• Macro factor: The ECB digital euro project moves forward, indicating a stable policy backdrop for the euro.
Range: EUR/NGN is likely to hold within its recent range, with a mild drift toward the lower end.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise tightening by the ECB or stronger Eurozone data could lift the euro and push EUR/NGN higher.
• Downside risk: Stronger naira from policy actions and higher oil revenue could push EUR/NGN lower.