EUR/NGN Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and on the lower end of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank's unchanged interest rates contrast with the Central Bank of Nigeria's higher rates aimed at managing inflation.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices recently low, the Nigerian economy may face pressures, affecting the naira's strength amid lower commodity revenues.
• One macro factor: The eurozone's inflation has dropped below target, raising concerns about potential easing of monetary policy by the ECB.
Range:
The EUR/NGN is likely to hold near current levels but could drift downwards toward recent lows.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant resolution regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict could bolster the euro.
• Downside risk: Further fall in oil prices might negatively impact the naira, leading to additional pressure on the EUR/NGN pair.