Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, as EUR/NGN trades below its 90-day average and sits in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: ECB policy is neutral with rates in a narrow corridor, while Nigeria’s CBN emphasises stability, keeping the naira robust and capping euro gains.
- Oil: Oil prices have climbed to near recent highs with elevated volatility, boosting Nigeria’s oil revenue outlook and supporting the naira, which tends to weigh on EUR/NGN.
- Macro: Inflation is easing toward target and the ECB is likely to stay on hold, supporting a flat euro and limiting EUR/NGN upside.
Range: EUR/NGN is likely to drift within the 3-month range, hovering near the lower end unless new headlines shift the path.
What could change it:
Upside risk: Unexpected strength in eurozone data or a clearer ECB signal to tighten could lift the euro and push EUR/NGN higher.
Downside risk: A stronger naira from oil revenue gains or policy actions could pull EUR/NGN toward the lower end.