EUR/NGN Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, with significant pressures from key economic developments.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is expected to maintain current interest rates, which contrasts sharply with the Central Bank of Nigeria's recent $7.5 billion intervention to support the naira.
• Risk/commodities: Brent crude oil prices are at 90-day highs and significantly impact the naira, as higher oil prices usually improve Nigeria's trade balance, strengthening its currency.
• One macro factor: The Nigerian economy is projected to grow by 4% in 2026, with lower inflation anticipated, boosting confidence in the naira's stability.
Range: EUR/NGN is likely to drift, constrained by current pressures but within a stable range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant reduction in Eurozone inflation could support the euro.
• Downside risk: A renewed geopolitical escalation affecting oil supply could deteriorate Nigeria's economic outlook and weaken the naira.