The EUR to NGN exchange rate has recently shown signs of stability, currently trading at around 1763 NGN, which is approximately 1.3% lower than its three-month average of 1786 NGN. Analysts note that the euro's performance is primarily affected by macroeconomic indicators and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy, particularly its recent decision to maintain interest rates, signaling an end to its cutting cycle. As ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated, risks to the Eurozone economy are now viewed as more balanced, which has bolstered the euro's strength.
Current developments in the Eurozone, such as Bulgaria's acceptance into the eurozone and the ECB members' consistent messaging about maintaining a steady monetary path, have positively influenced the euro's outlook. However, concerns remain regarding the rising value of the euro, particularly against the US dollar, which has appreciated by 14% in 2025. This has raised alarms among ECB officials who fear that a strong euro could hinder export competitiveness.
On the Nigerian side, the ngn is facing challenges. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended adjustments to Nigeria's budget due to falling oil prices, which have dropped to around $68 per barrel, considerably below the $75 benchmark used in fiscal planning. This decline is expected to put further pressure on the NGN, especially considering the projected 6% depreciation of the naira over the next year amid global uncertainty.
The impact of oil prices on both currencies cannot be ignored. Recently, oil prices have been volatile, tested by a significant range between $65.50 and $78.85, which remains 2.9% below the three-month average. Given that Nigeria's economy is heavily reliant on oil revenues, any further downturn in oil prices could exacerbate the naira's challenges and affect the EUR/NGN exchange rate dynamics.
Overall, the outlook for the EUR/NGN exchange rate is heavily influenced by both the ECB’s monetary policies and the volatility in oil prices, with analysts suggesting that the euro may retain its strength in the short term as long as these stabilizing factors hold, while the NGN may struggle to gain traction without a rebound in oil prices and strong fiscal management.
