EUR/NGN Outlook:
The EUR/NGN rate is currently below its recent average and near recent lows, resulting in a bearish outlook. The Naira's stability initiatives by the Central Bank of Nigeria are providing some support against further depreciation.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining an accommodative policy, while the Central Bank of Nigeria aims for exchange rate stability.
• Risk/commodities: Higher oil prices are boosting the Naira's outlook due to increased foreign revenues, which benefit Nigeria’s economy.
• Macroeconomic factor: Nigeria’s external reserves are at a seven-year high, enhancing the Naira's resilience to external shocks.
Range:
EUR/NGN is likely to hold around current levels, with possible slight fluctuations within its recent range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant easing of geopolitical tensions could boost demand for the Euro.
• Downside risk: A sharp rise in Nigeria's inflation could pressure the Naira, undermining its current stability efforts.