EUR/NGN Outlook:
The EUR/NGN is likely to decrease as the rate is currently below its recent average and near recent lows. Pressure comes from the ongoing stability measures by the Central Bank of Nigeria aimed at consolidating the naira's value.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is expected to maintain an accommodative policy, while the Central Bank of Nigeria focuses on stabilizing the naira without aggressive appreciation.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices at recent highs, higher global oil revenues could support the naira and influence its exchange rates more positively.
• One macro factor: The International Monetary Fund has projected a significant inflation rise in Nigeria, which may weaken the naira if unchecked.
Range:
The EUR/NGN is likely to drift within its recent 3-month range as pressures balance out.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A resolution in the geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine could lead to greater confidence in the euro.
• Downside risk: Further sharp increases in Nigeria's inflation could undermine the naira's value significantly.