Bias: EUR/PHP is bullish-to-range-bound, trading above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: ECB policy is expected to stay on hold with modest tightening risk, while the BSP is seen easing toward the mid-4% area, widening the policy gap and shaping flows between EUR and PHP.
• Oil: Oil remains near multi-month highs with increased volatility, which tends to lift inflation risk in the Philippines and can weigh on the PHP, potentially supporting a firmer euro in EUR/PHP.
• Macro: Peso depreciation and BSP stance imply ongoing PHP sensitivity to policy and external shocks, reinforcing EUR/PHP upside risk.
Range: The move is likely to hover near the upper end of the 3-month range, with only gradual drift.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: stronger eurozone data or hawkish ECB hints could lift EUR against PHP.
• Downside risk: a sharper peso selloff or faster BSP easing could push EUR/PHP toward the lower end.