The EUR to PHP exchange rate has recently reflected a mix of geopolitical influences and economic indicators affecting both currencies. Currently, the euro (EUR) is trading at 68.35 PHP, which is 1.2% higher than its three-month average of 67.53 PHP. Notably, it has remained relatively stable over the past three months, fluctuating within a 4.5% range from 65.92 to 68.87 PHP.
The euro has seen support from a cautious market sentiment and recent positive GDP growth in the Eurozone, which recorded a 0.2% acceleration in the third quarter. However, analysts note a shift towards a more dovish monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB), which raised rates to 4.0% in 2024 but is expected to cut them to 3.5% by late 2025 due to concerns over slowing growth. This potential reduction may narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S. Federal Reserve, influencing the euro's valuation against other currencies.
Furthermore, geopolitical factors such as the ongoing war in Ukraine and its economic repercussions continue to impact the euro’s stability. The situation adds volatility to the market, creating shifts in investor confidence. Meanwhile, a significant upcoming event is Bulgaria’s approval to join the eurozone in January 2026, which could enhance the euro's circulation within the market.
On the other side, the Philippine peso (PHP) is facing its challenges. Currently, the peso is experiencing depreciation and hit a record low against the U.S. dollar, influenced by concerns surrounding economic performance and expectations of rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). October's inflation rate of 1.7% creates a conducive environment for a potential rate cut aimed at stimulating growth. Mismatch between economic performance and inflationary control has raised concerns about the peso's valuation. The country's trade deficit also contributes to the overall pressure on the currency.
Given these factors, the movement in the EUR to PHP exchange rate may remain influenced by shifts in global economic conditions, particularly regarding inflation in both the Eurozone and the Philippines. As oil prices remain volatile, with current figures showing a slight decrease at $64.20 per barrel and trading 2.2% below its three-month average, analysts observe that fluctuations in oil prices may continue to indirectly affect both currencies.
As the eurozone navigates its economic challenges and the Philippines contends with slowing growth, currency traders and individuals conducting international transactions should keep a close eye on these developments, as potential shifts in economic policies and geopolitical events may lead to further fluctuations in the EUR to PHP exchange rate.
