EUR/PHP Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driving factor.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank maintains a cautious monetary policy, while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas faces uncertainties about interest rate cuts, impacting the peso's strength.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above their average, which can potentially support the euro’s value, as it impacts overall economic activity.
• One macro factor: Bulgaria's recent adoption of the euro may bolster trade and investment within the Eurozone, positively influencing the euro.
Range: The EUR/PHP is expected to hold within its recent 3-month range as there are no strong catalysts for larger movements.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising increase in Eurozone economic data could strengthen the euro.
• Downside risk: Continued speculation on peso interest rate cuts could further weaken the currency.