EUR/PHP Outlook:
The EUR/PHP rate is likely to decrease as it is currently trading 1.1% below its recent average and is near recent lows. The ongoing monetary policy easing by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is applying pressure on the peso.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining interest rates, while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is easing, which weakens the peso versus the euro.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are at 90-day highs, impacting the Philippine economy, where higher oil costs can increase inflation and reduce demand for pesos.
• One macro factor: A 23.8% decline in foreign direct investment in the Philippines is raising concerns about the peso's long-term stability.
Range:
Expect EUR/PHP to drift lower within its recent range of 67.89 to 70.98 as market conditions remain volatile.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A rapid recovery in foreign direct investment could boost the peso.
• Downside risk: Further monetary easing by the BSP may exacerbate depreciation pressures on the peso.