The recent activity in the EUR to PHP exchange rate reflects a complex interplay of economic factors affecting both currencies. As of late December 2025, the euro is near its 7-day highs at 69.23 PHP, representing a 1.4% increase over its 3-month average of 68.26 PHP. The euro has remained stable within a narrow range of 67.29 to 69.40 PHP during this period. Analysts attribute this stability in part to the European Central Bank (ECB) maintaining interest rates steady amid signs of modest economic growth across the Eurozone. Despite the ECB's cautious stance, comments from President Christine Lagarde cautioning against a stronger euro potentially dampening inflation have introduced bearish sentiment around the euro.
In contrast, the Philippine peso faces challenges stemming from domestic political unrest and slowing economic growth. Recent anti-corruption protests have raised concerns about political stability, which could undermine investor confidence. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a slowdown in Philippine growth to 5.1% in 2025, alongside projected low inflation at 1.7%. While the peso has reported a balance of payments surplus, this positive development may not be enough to offset the political risks.
Furthermore, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut interest rates recently but indicated a limit on further easing efforts, aiming to stabilize the peso while supporting domestic demand. These mixed signals from the Philippine economy suggest that the peso could remain under pressure in the short term, especially if domestic unrest continues.
Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the energy market's volatility can affect the euro's performance. Oil prices have recently been at 7-day highs near 62.29 USD, reflecting a 2.0% decline against a 3-month average of 63.54 USD, with a wider trading range indicating market volatility. Fluctuations in oil prices can play a significant role in the euro’s valuation, as higher oil prices tend to influence inflation and monetary policy stances in the Eurozone, which could indirectly affect the EUR/PHP exchange rate.
In summary, while the euro appears to have strengthened against the peso recently, ongoing economic and political dynamics could lead to fluctuations. Investors and businesses engaging in international transactions should monitor these developments, as they may offer opportunities for hedging against currency risks in the near future.
