The exchange rate forecast for EUR to TRY currently reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors affecting both currencies. Recent sentiment in the Eurozone has shown resilience, with the euro rebounding from initial losses amid geopolitical tensions, buoyed by declines in the US dollar. Analysts note that Germany's anticipated deterioration in business sentiment may weigh on the euro, despite a strong rise in the HCOB Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index, which signals robust growth in the region.
Inflation within the eurozone has stabilized, holding steady at 2%, aligning with the European Central Bank's (ECB) target. This stabilization supports the ECB's current interest rate stance, although ECB officials have voiced concerns regarding the euro's rapid appreciation against the US dollar, which has risen by 14% in 2025. Such strength could hinder export competitiveness, leading some analysts to anticipate potential monetary policy adjustments if the euro continues to rally.
Conversely, the Turkish lira faces significant challenges. The gradual phasing out of the FX-protected deposit scheme and recent interest rate cuts aim to stabilize the economy following political unrest and a decline in investor confidence. Turkish GDP growth is projected to lag behind government expectations, potentially impacting the lira further. Analysts observe that the lira's volatility remains a concern, especially amid recent political protests and state interventions in the foreign exchange market.
EUR to TRY currently trades at 47.62, marking a 2.3% increase above its three-month average and displaying a volatile range between 44.15 and 48.07. Such fluctuations reflect the ongoing uncertainty surrounding both economies. The euro's performance may also be intertwined with oil price movements, which recently approached 14-day highs near 68.80. As oil prices trend near their three-month average, shifts in energy prices could further influence the EUR's strength, particularly given the eurozone's energy supply challenges stemming from geopolitical conflicts.
In summary, currency analysts anticipate that the EUR/TRY exchange rate will remain susceptible to domestic developments within the Eurozone and Turkey, along with global market sentiment towards risk. The outlook hinges on economic stability, policy responses from respective central banks, and broader geopolitical dynamics, making it essential for businesses and individuals engaged in international transactions to stay informed on these trends.
