Recent analysis suggests that the EUR to TRY exchange rate is currently influenced by a mix of monetary policy changes, economic indicators, and geopolitical factors, leading to the euro trading at 90-day highs near 49.40, which is 1.4% above its three-month average of 48.74. This performance reflects a stable trading range from 47.95 to 49.40 over the past months.
The strength of the euro has been bolstered by a prevailing weakness in the US dollar, along with a perception that the European Central Bank (ECB) may have concluded its rate hike cycle. Comments from analysts highlight the euro's recent appreciation against the dollar, with expectations that a rise in Eurozone inflation could reinforce the notion that the ECB is pivoting from tightening towards sustaining monetary policy.
In contrast, the Turkish lira is grappling with economic challenges, particularly rising inflation, which surged to 33.29% in September 2025. This has prompted the Turkish central bank to adjust its policies, including a recent interest rate cut to 39.5%, further complicating the lira's trajectory. Analysts note that the central bank's commitment to a 16% inflation target by the end of 2026 may be strained amid continued escalation in consumer prices.
Political unrest has compounded the lira's volatility, particularly following protests linked to the arrest of key opposition figures. This social turmoil has seen the lira experience sharp depreciation, as market confidence wavers amid increasing instability.
Furthermore, external factors such as oil prices are also pertinent, with recent trends in oil trading at $62.45, indicating a decline below its three-month average. The fluctuations in oil prices can indirectly affect both the euro and lira by influencing inflation and economic stability within their respective markets.
Overall, currency analysts forecast that the EUR to TRY exchange rate will remain subject to a host of dynamic influences, including domestic monetary policies, geopolitical developments, and external economic conditions, making close monitoring essential for those engaged in international transactions.
