The EUR to TRY exchange rate has recently been influenced by a mix of geopolitical developments, monetary policy shifts, and economic indicators from both the Eurozone and Turkey. Analysts expect that the euro could strengthen due to ongoing optimism surrounding peace talks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This optimism has thus far allowed the euro to rise against several currencies, despite disappointing economic data from Germany, which reported stagnation in growth for the third quarter of 2025.
Recent forecasts suggest that the European Central Bank (ECB) may shift toward a more dovish policy, with anticipated interest rate cuts by late 2025. This is particularly relevant given that the ECB had previously raised rates to combat inflation but is now facing external pressures from slowing economic growth. Significant eurozone developments, like Bulgaria's approval to join the Eurozone in 2026, are expected to enhance the euro's influence and circulation, potentially providing further support to the currency.
In contrast, the Turkish lira is grappling with serious inflation challenges. With the central bank holding its inflation target at 16% for 2026 while recently revising its 2025 inflation forecast upwards to 31-33%, concerns mount regarding the effectiveness of current monetary policy. The lira weakened substantially following political unrest this year and has remained vulnerable to fluctuations. Recent price data indicate a 33.29% year-on-year inflation rate in September, which the central bank is trying to address, albeit amid interest rate cuts aimed at supporting economic activity.
Currently, the EUR to TRY rate stands near 49.12, slightly above its three-month average of 48.64, reflecting a stable trading range over recent weeks. The stability in the exchange rate juxtaposes with the volatility observed in oil prices, which have fluctuated between 60.96 and 70.13 USD in the last three months. Given that both the euro and lira values can be affected by oil price movements—especially for Turkey, which imports significant energy resources—these trends may further complicate the outlook for the exchange rate.
Public sentiment, political stability, and overall economic conditions in both regions will be critical for future movements. Should the Eurozone experience a breakthrough in peace discussions or a recovery in economic performance, this could bolster the euro's value. Conversely, persistent inflation and instability in Turkey may keep pressure on the lira. Market observers recommend monitoring these factors closely, as they will play a pivotal role in shaping the EUR to TRY exchange rate in the near term.
