EUR to TRY Forecast & Outlook
18 Apr 2026 • 00:54 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🟢 Mild upside
- Expected range: 52.8000 – 53.7240
- Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
- 3-month trend: 🟢 Uptrend
Currently, EUR/TRY is trading close to 90-day highs near 52.80, supported by risk-off sentiment and Turkish risk premium. Over the next few sessions, the pair may remain supported within its recent range as global risk aversion persists.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Turkey may find current levels slightly more favourable than recent prices.
- Travellers: buying Turkish Lira cash could face support around current rates, making transactions relatively advantageous.
- Businesses: paying Turkish invoices in Euro may see conditions holding near recent levels, but risks could limit further benefits.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: The Turkish monetary policy remains tight, with a 45% interest rate hike and inflation target increase, supporting TRY.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off sentiment and geopolitical tensions sustain safe-haven flows, pressuring risk-sensitive currencies.
- Global factors: Overall risk sentiment continues to dominate, influenced by global geopolitical and economic developments.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: A decline in risk aversion could weaken the TRY, making EUR/TRY less favourable.
- Downside risk: A surprise easing or policy shift in Turkey might boost TRY, pushing EUR/TRY lower.
BER suggests comparing FX providers to find lower margins and help offset less favourable exchange conditions.