EUR to TRY Forecast & Outlook
25 Apr 2026 • 00:50 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
- Expected range: 51.9640 – 52.8900
- Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
- 3-month trend: ⚪ Range-bound
EUR/TRY is trading close to recent highs, supported by risk-off sentiment and the rate gap. Currently, the pair remains near the upper end of its recent range, influenced by Turkish rate hikes and geopolitical tensions. Over the next few sessions, the pair may face downward pressure if risk sentiment continues to dominate macro flows.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Turkey may find current levels less favourable than recent, as the pair could weaken further.
- Travellers: exchanging euros for Turkish Lira might see fewer TRY for each euro if the pair declines.
- Businesses: paying Turkish Lira invoices in euros may face higher costs if the pair trades lower.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: Turkish monetary policy is hawkish, maintaining high rates despite geopolitical tensions, pressuring the pair.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off conditions prevail, supporting safe-haven currencies and pressuring risk-sensitive FX.
- Global factors: Eurozone energy crisis and PMI decline continue to weigh on EUR, influencing the pair.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: An easing in geopolitical tensions or a shift in risk sentiment could support a rebound.
- Downside risk: Further risk aversion or a wider euro weakness could push the pair lower.
BER suggests shopping around for the lowest margin provider to help reduce overall transfer costs, as conditions may be less favourable than recent levels.