The EUR to VND exchange rate has seen some stability recently, with the euro trading at 30,542 VND, just 0.6% below its three-month average of 30,737 VND. Analysts note that it has been fluctuating within a narrow range of 3.6%, between 30,210 and 31,309 VND. This stability in the euro coincides with generally positive economic indicators from the Eurozone, including a GDP growth acceleration to 0.2% in the third quarter, which has bolstered demand for the currency.
However, forecasts indicate that the European Central Bank's (ECB) potential shift to a more dovish monetary policy could impact the euro's strength. With the ECB expected to cut rates to 3.5% by late 2025 in response to slowing growth, the euro may face downward pressure against both the US dollar and the Vietnamese đồng. This comes at a time when geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine, continue to weigh on overall economic sentiment in the Eurozone.
For the Vietnamese đồng, expectations are similarly cautious. Experts project a depreciation of around 3% against the US dollar in 2025, largely driven by a stronger dollar and external economic pressures. Additionally, the State Bank of Vietnam's interventions, such as selling $1.5 billion through forward contracts, aim to stabilize the VND amidst these challenges.
Moreover, external factors, particularly the oil market, may also have a dual impact on both the euro and the VND. Currently, OIL is trading at $64.20, 2.2% below its three-month average, indicating significant volatility which could affect both currencies given their sensitivity to energy prices.
In summary, while recent performance for the EUR/VND pair has shown stability, the evolving economic landscapes in Europe and Vietnam point towards potential downward pressure on the euro and a weakening of the VND in anticipation of broader global financial conditions. Investors and businesses involved in international transactions should prepare for possible fluctuations and consider currency risk management strategies moving forward.
