The recent exchange rate forecasts for the EUR to VND highlight a complex interplay of economic factors impacting both currencies. The euro (EUR) has shown resilience, recently trading near 30,635 VND, just below its three-month average. This reflects a stable trading range, signaling a lack of extreme volatility despite fluctuations in the global market.
Analysts note that the euro has firmed against the US dollar, influenced by a dovish shift in the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy amid slowing growth in the Eurozone. While the ECB raised rates to 4.0% in 2024 to combat inflation, expectations suggest a potential cut to 3.5% by late 2025. This shift may compress the interest rate differential with the US Federal Reserve, which could affect the euro's strength. Additionally, the anticipated accession of Bulgaria into the eurozone in January 2026 is expected to enhance the euro's circulation and could positively influence its value.
Conversely, the Vietnamese đồng (VND) is projected to experience a depreciation of approximately 3% against the US dollar in 2025. Factors contributing to this include recent tariffs imposed by the US on Vietnamese goods and a global economic environment favoring a stronger dollar. Central Bank interventions, such as a recent sale of $1.5 billion through forward contracts, aim to stabilize the VND amidst these pressures.
The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine, continue to create uncertainty for the euro's value, driven by energy prices and economic ramifications for the Eurozone. Recent trends in oil prices, trading at $64.29, indicate a slight decline below the three-month average, introducing factors that may also influence the euro's correlation with the dollar.
Overall, market experts suggest that the EUR to VND exchange rate will remain sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical events, and monetary policies from both the ECB and the State Bank of Vietnam. Investors and businesses engaging in international transactions should closely monitor these developments to navigate potential volatility.
