The recent exchange rate forecasts for the EUR to VND highlight a complex interplay of factors impacting both currencies. As of now, the euro has shown signs of weakening due to comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who expressed concerns over the vulnerability of Europe’s economy amidst shifting global dynamics. The ECB's dovish stance, shifting from a rate of 4.0% to potential cuts by late 2025, may also reduce the euro's appeal, especially against a backdrop of economic challenges in the Eurozone. Analysts anticipate that while improvements in Germany's business morale could support the euro, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Ukraine, continue to create uncertainty that could weigh on its value.
Recent data shows the EUR to VND exchange rate is at 14-day lows near 30,326, which is 1.2% below the three-month average of 30,710. The trading range has been relatively stable, fluctuating within 3.6% from 30,210 to 31,309. On the other hand, experts forecast a depreciation in the Vietnamese đồng as well, predicting a decline of about 3% against the US dollar in 2025 influenced by a strengthening dollar and domestic economic policies. Recent interventions by the State Bank of Vietnam to stabilize the VND amid pressures from US tariffs and external economic challenges suggest that the currency may remain under strain.
In terms of oil prices, which can also impact the euro, current data indicates that oil is trading at 30-day lows near $62.21, substantially below the three-month average of $65.33, with volatility in the market. Fluctuations in oil prices can have ripple effects on the eurozone's economic health, given the region's reliance on energy imports. This situation may further complicate the euro's trajectory against the VND.
Overall, the interplay of the ECB's evolving monetary policy, ongoing geopolitical factors, and domestic economic developments in Vietnam contribute to a forecast characterized by caution and potential volatility for the EUR to VND exchange rate moving forward.
