EUR/VND Outlook: The outlook for the EUR/VND pair is likely to move sideways, as the rate is trading near its recent average and lacks a decisive driving factor.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining a neutral stance while the Vietnamese central bank appears cautious about further monetary policy expansion, which balances the rate dynamics.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have recently risen above average, which could indirectly support the euro due to its effect on inflation and economic performance in the Eurozone.
• One macro factor: Vietnam's strong projected GDP growth of 7% for 2026 suggests a robust economic outlook, potentially lending strength to the VND.
Range: The EUR/VND is likely to drift within its recent stable range, as current movements show no signs of testing extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Improved economic indicators from Germany could boost the euro's strength.
• Downside risk: Any escalation in geopolitical tensions that affects Vietnam's trade balance could weaken the VND.
