The recent performance of the euro (EUR) against the Vietnamese đồng (VND) has been influenced by multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Analysts note that the euro has faced downward pressure due to its negative correlation with the stronger US dollar (USD). As of late October 2025, the EUR to VND exchange rate is experiencing seven-day lows near 30,554, just slightly above its three-month average of 30,745, suggesting stability within a 4.8% trading range.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has a significant role in shaping the euro's trajectory. Recent insights indicate that speeches from ECB officials could hint at a hawkish stance, providing potential support for the EUR's value. However, economic indicators from the Eurozone show slowing growth and inflation, as highlighted by a recent drop in the Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.7, which indicates a contraction in business activity. Such data could weigh on the euro in the short term.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical climate continues to affect the euro's stability, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has led to inflation and economic slowdowns within the Eurozone. The energy crisis that has ensued has further complicated the euro's outlook, with the potential for prolonged conflict influencing market sentiment.
On the other hand, the Vietnamese đồng has experienced notable depreciation against major currencies, including a reported 14% drop against the euro since January 2025. Economists suggest that further depreciation of the VND could occur, with forecasts indicating a 3% decline against the USD, influenced by global economic trends. The recent imposition of US tariffs on imports may contribute to Vietnam's consideration of currency depreciation to maintain export competitiveness.
Furthermore, oil prices, which have recently dipped to 61.32 USD, approximately 8% below their three-month average, could also impact the euro and Vietnamese economy. The volatility in oil prices, seen in a range of 20.4%, can lead to fluctuations in related currency values as oil serves as a key economic indicator.
In summary, the outlook for the EUR/VND exchange rate remains intricate, influenced by ECB policies, Eurozone economic indicators, geopolitical tensions, and the overarching strength of the USD, along with domestic and international factors impacting the VND. Monitoring these developments will be essential for individuals and businesses engaging in international transactions to navigate foreign exchange costs effectively.
