Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, EUR/VND sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range, with little sign of a quick rebound.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The ECB is expected to hold policy steady with a neutral stance, while Vietnam signals caution on expanding policy, widening the policy gap between the two.
- Oil trend: Oil trades above its three-month average with notable volatility, shaping euro-area energy costs and EM currency moves, including EUR/VND, especially when market mood shifts.
- Macro factor: The Fed has cut rates, easing USD strength and supporting VNĐ against the euro.
Range: EUR/VND is likely to drift within the three-month range, with modest pressure toward the lower end, unless eurozone data surprises or oil moves sharply, keeping a narrow trading band.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger eurozone data or a clearer ECB tilt toward tightening could lift EUR.
- Downside risk: further USD weakness from more Fed cuts could push EUR/VND lower.
