The EUR to VND exchange rate remains relatively stable at approximately 30,714 VND, in line with its 3-month average, which has seen fluctuations within a narrow range of 3.6% from 30,210 to 31,309 VND. Recent analyst reports suggest that the euro initially benefitted from a weaker US dollar but later faced downward pressure due to ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Russia and concerns over Germany's economic performance, particularly a potential slowdown in factory orders.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has reiterated its commitment to allowing market-driven exchange rates while navigating recent "upside surprises" in Eurozone inflation, which rose from 2.1% to 2.2% in November 2023. This slight increase is indicative of pressure from domestic price movements, especially within the services sector. Analysts expect inflation to remain near the ECB's target, which could stabilize monetary policy but may also influence the euro's trajectory amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine and its economic ramifications on the Eurozone.
In the context of the Vietnamese đồng, experts believe the VND may depreciate by about 3% against the US dollar throughout 2025, reflecting the influence of a strengthening USD and broader economic conditions. The implementation of regulations on cryptocurrency transactions could add further complexity to the VND's valuation. As the VND still hinges significantly on external economic conditions, such as those affecting global trade and investments, these regulatory changes could have notable implications.
Additionally, recent oil price trends suggest some volatility, with Brent Crude OIL/USD nearing 63.37, which is 2.1% below its 3-month average. Since euro valuation can also be affected by oil prices, fluctuations in this commodity may indirectly influence the EUR/VND pair. Overall, market sentiment remains key, and decisions from the ECB, combined with external geopolitical factors, will be critical in determining the euro's direction against the VND in the coming months.
