Bias: The EUR/VND exchange rate is range-bound, as it is near the 90-day average and within the middle of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a neutral policy, while the Vietnamese central bank's caution regarding monetary policy creates a stable environment for the VND.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which may support the Euro due to its historical connection with energy costs and economic health in the Eurozone.
- One macro factor: Vietnam is set to experience substantial GDP growth in 2026, which could enhance demand for the VND in international trade.
Range: The EUR/VND is likely to hold steady, with potential for limited movement within the recent 3-month range.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A resolution to geopolitical tensions could boost the Euro’s value.
- Downside risk: Any unexpected economic slowdown in the Eurozone might weaken the Euro against the VND.