Recent forecasts indicate a complex landscape for the EUR to VND exchange rate, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors. Currently, the EUR is trading near 30-day highs at approximately 30,631 VND, which positions it just below the three-month average. The euro has maintained stability within a 3.6% range from 30,210 to 31,309 VND, reflecting a trend that aligns with a stronger euro against the US dollar largely due to dollar weakness.
Analysts highlight that the Eurozone's economic indicators, such as the latest consumer price index, may provide upward support for the EUR if inflation trends continue to solidify expectations that the European Central Bank's (ECB) cutting cycle is nearing an end. Following its recent dovish shift from aggressive rate hikes aimed at combating inflation, expectations now suggest that the ECB may reduce rates to 3.5% by late 2025. This potential reduction could narrow the interest rate differential between the euro and the US dollar, impacting the currency pair's dynamics.
Furthermore, the inclusion of Bulgaria into the Eurozone starting in January 2026 may increase the euro's circulation, potentially enhancing its value over time. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine has continued to impose significant challenges on the Eurozone economy, leading to fluctuations in the euro's value due to heightened geopolitical instability and energy supply concerns.
Conversely, the Vietnamese đồng is facing pressures that could influence its performance against the euro. Predictions indicate a depreciation of approximately 3% against the US dollar in 2025, attributed to the strength of the dollar and associated global economic conditions. This expected depreciation is exacerbated by recent trade tensions, including a 20% tariff imposed by the US on Vietnamese goods, which threatens export competitiveness and further pressures the currency.
The VND has experienced stabilization efforts from the State Bank of Vietnam, which intervened in the market by selling around $1.5 billion to bolster the currency. Additionally, the recent cut in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate has provided some leeway for the VND as Vietnam navigates its own economic stability amid these external pressures.
In terms of oil prices, the recent decline to $63.33, which is approximately 2.4% below its three-month average, reflects the volatile nature of the oil market with fluctuations ranging from $60.96 to $70.13. Given the euro's sensitivity to energy prices, any significant increases in oil costs could impact the euro adversely, whereas continued stabilization in oil markets may provide support for the euro's strength.
Overall, the EUR to VND exchange rate is likely to be influenced by the Eurozone's economic recovery trajectory and the performance of the Vietnamese economy amidst ongoing supply chain challenges and geopolitical tensions. Keeping an eye on these developments will be critical for individuals and businesses engaged in international transactions involving these currencies.
