EUR/VND Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average and near its highs, with no clear driver to push it higher.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining a neutral stance, while the International Monetary Fund has approved a revaluation of the Vietnamese Đồng.
• Risk/commodities: The recent rise in oil prices may support the euro's value, given its negative correlation with the US dollar.
• One macro factor: Vietnam's GDP is projected to grow significantly, which could enhance demand for the Đồng.
Range: The EUR/VND is likely to drift within the recent trading range, showing stability at these higher levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected economic report from the Eurozone could push the euro higher.
• Downside risk: Renewed geopolitical tensions or economic downturns could weaken the euro versus the Đồng.