The recent exchange rate forecasts for the EUR to VND currency pair indicate a landscape influenced by both local and international economic factors. Analysts note that the euro (EUR) has exhibited a mixed performance against various currencies, including the Vietnamese đồng (VND), primarily due to geopolitical uncertainties such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This conflict continues to generate volatility in the euro’s value, compounded by shifting market sentiments and varying forecasts about recovery in the Eurozone economy.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has transitioned to a more dovish monetary policy after previously raising interest rates to curb inflation. Market expectations suggest a further decline to around 3.5% by late 2025, which could narrow the interest rate gap against the US Federal Reserve. This potential weakening of the euro's yield appeal may contribute to a more subdued performance in the euro-VND exchange rate.
While the euro has seen a recent appreciation against the US dollar, at nearly 14% since the beginning of the year, its trajectory remains uncertain due to external pressures and the potential for increased eurozone instability. Market sources indicate that robust economic indicators from Germany and broader improvements in Eurozone consumer sentiment may lend temporary support to the euro. However, these gains could be undercut if global financial conditions remain unfavorable.
On the Vietnamese side, forecasts suggest a depreciation of the VND by approximately 3% against the US dollar in 2025, largely driven by ongoing trade tensions and the strengthening American currency. The State Bank of Vietnam's recent interventions, including the sale of $1.5 billion in foreign exchange to stabilize the VND, reflect the central bank's active role in managing currency fluctuations amidst external pressures such as tariffs imposed by the US.
In the immediate market context, the EUR to VND has recently traded at around 30,600, which is near its 7-day highs but just below its 3-month average. This stability within a 3.6% range indicates a measured response to ongoing developments.
Additionally, crude oil prices remain a variable that influences the euro, given the eurozone's reliance on energy imports. Presently, oil prices are approximately 3.2% below their 3-month average. The fluctuations within this volatile environment further complicate the euro's performance against the VND.
Overall, the future outlook for the EUR to VND exchange rate will hinge on both regional economic recovery signals in Europe and the evolving dynamics of US-China trade relations impacting the VND. Investors should remain alert to ECB policy changes and geopolitical news, as these will significantly affect exchange rate movements.
