Bias: Range-bound, EUR/VND sits near the 90-day average and in the middle of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The ECB keeps policy neutral while Vietnam follows a cautious path after the IMF adjustment; USD moves drive the EUR/VND cross more than any single policy.
- Oil/commodities: Oil stays near highs with volatility; higher energy import costs weigh on Europe’s euro and lift Vietnam’s import bills, nudging the cross.
- Macro factor: Fed rate cuts ease USD strength, supporting EM currencies and helping EUR/VND stay resilient.
Range: EUR/VND is expected to drift within the recent range, with occasional tests of the upper end before easing back toward the middle.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Unexpectedly stronger eurozone inflation and a sooner-than-expected ECB tightening could push EUR/VND higher as euro gains on policy signals.
- Downside risk: A sharper dong adjustment from IMF guidance or a renewed USD rally driven by solid US data could push EUR/VND toward the upper end of its range.
