The EUR to VND exchange rate currently remains under pressure, trading near 30-day lows around 30,657 VND. This position is just below the three-month average and has fluctuated within a relatively stable range of 4.8%, from 29,884 to 31,309 VND. Analysts suggest that the recent challenges faced by the euro, including a rise in unemployment in the Eurozone, may deter upward momentum. August data indicated unemployment nudged up to 6.3%, missing forecasts and raising concerns among EUR investors.
Market focus is now on ECB President Christine Lagarde's upcoming remarks, with the potential for the euro to strengthen if she suggests an end to the current cycle of interest rate cuts. Recent statements from Lagarde highlighted that inflation risks remain under control despite external pressures from U.S. tariffs. Experts note that while the euro has appreciated over 10% against the dollar in recent months, it faces a conundrum as its strength could complicate the ECB's efforts to stimulate the economy.
The Vietnamese đồng (VND) is predicted to face a depreciation challenge, projected at about 3% against the U.S. dollar in 2025 due to a strong dollar and global economic conditions, according to reports from Vietcombank Securities Company. Additionally, the State Bank of Vietnam has undertaken measures, including selling foreign currency via forward contracts, to stabilize the VND amid market pressures. Recent regulatory changes require increased transparency in large electronic transfers, reflecting ongoing attempts to manage currency stability.
The interplay between oil prices and currency values remains significant, with recent data showing oil trading at 66.25 USD, a 2.3% decline from its three-month average. Given that oil prices can influence economic outlooks and inflationary pressures, they may have indirect effects on both the euro and the Vietnamese đồng as global sentiment shifts.
Moving forward, the trajectory of the EUR to VND exchange rate will be contingent on both European economic indicators and the responses of the Vietnamese authorities to bolster the VND. Currency market participants should keep an eye on these developments to make informed decisions regarding international transactions.
