EUR/VND Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate sits just above its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The European Central Bank has maintained interest rates, while the State Bank of Vietnam is expected to remain stable due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Risk/commodities: With oil prices above average, the euro could face upward pressure, impacting the EUR/VND exchange rate due to the euro's correlation with energy prices.
- One macro factor: The upcoming legislative elections in Vietnam could influence economic policies, potentially affecting the VND's performance in the near term.
Range:
Expect the EUR/VND to drift within its recent range, holding steady but lacking significant movement.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A resolution of geopolitical tensions in Ukraine could bolster the euro's strength.
- Downside risk: Any significant weakening of the euro due to abrupt changes in the economic outlook for the Eurozone could pressure the rate lower.