The recent trends indicate that the EUR to VND exchange rate has exhibited strength, currently trading at 31,185 VND, which is 1.8% above its three-month average of 30,637 VND. This uptick reflects positive momentum attributed to several factors, including stronger economic data from Germany that enhanced the euro's appeal, as well as a general weakening of the US dollar, with which the euro is negatively correlated.
Analysts highlight that the euro's appreciation could be further supported by potential hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, indicating a robust monetary policy stance. Additionally, the ongoing discourse regarding the eurozone's expansion—particularly Bulgaria's upcoming accession—could bolster the euro’s global status. This growing prominence in international markets could attract more foreign investment into euro-denominated assets, which may further stimulate the currency.
However, there are concerns regarding the euro's rapid ascent. ECB officials have expressed caution, noting that a significant rise in the euro could hinder export competitiveness. The euro has appreciated by 14% against the US dollar in 2025 alone, which could be a double-edged sword for the Eurozone’s economy. Factors such as the ongoing war in Ukraine and its impact on energy prices and inflation also contribute to market uncertainty, affecting the euro's stability.
Conversely, the Vietnamese đồng (VND) faces challenges, particularly influenced by international trade dynamics and domestic policies. UOB forecasts suggest a depreciation of the VND, predicting it could weaken to 25,800 VND per USD in Q2 and 26,000 VND in Q3 due to factors like increased tariffs from the U.S. and pressures from a robust USD. Recently implemented regulations aiming to stimulate industrial growth may provide some support, but the high U.S. dollar index continues to exert downward pressure on the VND.
In terms of oil prices, which are crucial for both currencies, recent data shows that OIL to USD is currently at 67.95, slightly below its three-month average of 68.63 and trading within a volatile range. Fluctuations in oil prices can impact both the euro and VND due to their roles in the global economy and regional trade dynamics.
Overall, as the euro currently demonstrates resilience against the VND, ongoing geopolitical tensions, monetary policy shifts, and international economic developments will continue to play a critical role in determining the future trajectory of these currencies. Businesses and individuals engaged in currency transactions should remain vigilant to these influential factors to make informed decisions.
