The current EUR to VND exchange rate stands at 30,428, slightly below its three-month average of 30,731. Analysts note the euro's recent stability within a 3.6% range, from 30,210 to 31,309. The euro has gained traction recently, largely driven by risk aversion in global markets and a modest easing of Eurozone inflation down to 2.1% in October.
Forecasts indicate that the European Central Bank (ECB) is moving towards a more dovish monetary policy, with expectations of rate cuts from the current 4.0% to 3.5% by late 2025. This anticipated shift could reduce the interest rate differential with the U.S. Federal Reserve, impacting the euro's appeal. Analysts suggest that continued geopolitical tensions, particularly arising from the war in Ukraine, may introduce volatility in the euro's value, with economic recovery and political stability being crucial for future performance.
In contrast, the Vietnamese đồng (VND) is forecasted to depreciate by approximately 3% against the US dollar in 2025, due to a strong dollar and external economic pressures. The State Bank of Vietnam has been actively intervening in the market to stabilize the VND, recently selling significant amounts of dollars amid exchange rate pressures. Additionally, rising tariffs on Vietnamese goods imposed by the US have led to further weakness in the VND as the country adjusts its currency to maintain export competitiveness.
Both currencies are influenced by ongoing global financial conditions. Oil prices, essential to monitoring USD movements, are currently at 63.66, about 2.9% below their three-month average of 65.56, indicating a potential impact on the euro's value as well. The volatility in the oil market may further complicate the backdrop against which the euro operates, given its reliance on macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical stability.
Overall, market sentiment, fiscal policies, and international trade dynamics will remain pivotal in determining the trajectories of both the euro and the VND in the coming months. Investors should stay alert to the evolving economic landscape and its implications for exchange rate movements.
