EUR/VND Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is near its 90-day average and lacks a clear driver supporting a major move.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining its interest rates, while the State Bank of Vietnam is also holding its rate steady, contributing to a stable EUR/VND.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which can strengthen the Euro due to its connection with global economic health, but fluctuations create uncertainty.
• One macro factor: Vietnam's projected GDP growth of 7% in 2026 indicates strong economic prospects, which could support the Đồng.
Range: The EUR/VND is likely to hold within recent levels, drifting toward the higher end of the stable 4.1% range seen over the past three months.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising shift in ECB policy or unexpected Eurozone economic data could boost the Euro.
• Downside risk: Poor performance from the Eurozone's GDP report may weaken the Euro against the VND.
