Date: March 31, 2026
Key Developments Affecting the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD):
1. Economic Growth and Budget Measures
In February 2026, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary announced a fiscal surplus for the 2025-26 financial year, marking a significant turnaround from the previous deficit. The 2026-27 Budget focuses on economic transformation, emphasizing innovation, technology, and financial measures to enhance Hong Kong's competitiveness. (deloitte.com)
2. Monetary Policy Alignment with the U.S. Federal Reserve
On January 29, 2026, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintained its base rate at 4.0%, aligning with the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hold its target range at 3%–3.75%. This move underscores Hong Kong's policy alignment with the U.S. under the Linked Exchange Rate System, which pegs the HKD at 7.75–7.85. (tradingeconomics.com)
3. Record Growth in Local Currency Bond Issuance
In 2025, Hong Kong's local currency bond issuance reached a record HK$613 billion, up nearly 41% from the previous year. This trend is expected to continue in 2026, driven by deepened market benchmarks and sustained demand. (scmp.com)
4. Strengthening Hong Kong's Role as an Investment Hub
Hong Kong is positioning itself as a strategic Asia-Pacific investment hub in 2026, supported by revived capital markets, stable macroeconomic fundamentals, and deep financial liquidity. Policy and regulatory developments are reinforcing its platform economy, enabling cross-border capital flows and enhancing connectivity with global markets. (china-briefing.com)
These developments are expected to influence the HKD's performance in the coming months.
31 March 2026
1. Hryvnia's Recent Performance
The Ukrainian hryvnia has weakened against the US dollar, reaching an all-time low of 44.25 UAH/USD in March 2026. (tradingeconomics.com)
2. National Bank's Response
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) attributes the devaluation to increased demand for foreign currency amid geopolitical uncertainties. The NBU is prepared to intervene to stabilize the forex market. (interfax.com)
3. 2026 Budget Forecasts
The 2026-2028 budget declaration projects a 4.5% GDP growth in 2026, with the hryvnia expected to average 44.7 UAH/USD for the year and end at 44.8 UAH/USD. (ukranews.com)
4. Expert Exchange Rate Predictions
Financial experts anticipate a controlled weakening of the hryvnia in 2026, with the dollar potentially reaching 45 UAH and the euro 50 UAH. (finance.liga.net)
5. NBU's Monetary Policy
The NBU continues to implement a "managed flexibility" approach, aiming to balance market expectations and price stability without allowing sharp currency fluctuations. (unn.ua)
These developments indicate that while the hryvnia faces downward pressure, the NBU is actively working to maintain stability through strategic interventions and policy measures.