Send to Australia Transfers Compared

Bias Bearish-to-range-bound, with USD/AUD below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range. Key drivers - Rate gap: The Fed is expected to ease later this year, while the RBA has signalled potential tightening, widening the policy gap and supporting the AUD when risk appetite improves. - Risk/commodities: China’s softer inflation has weighed on AUD demand and dampened Australia’s commodity export prospects, keeping the AUD under pressure at times. - One macro factor: Australia’s CPI and employment data due this month will shape the RBA path and near-term moves. - Recent USDAUD price data show only modest moves, with a brief test toward the lower end of the three-month range. Range The pair is likely to drift within the three-month range, with a tendency to test the lower end but not break out, unless new data surprises. What could change it - Upside risk: A stronger US jobs report or a hawkish Fed commentary could lift the USD and push USD/AUD higher. - Downside risk: A dovish Fed tilt combined with stronger Australian data could push AUD higher and USD/AUD lower. USD/AUD: Bearish-to-range, below the 90-day avg in the lower half of the 3m range. Rate gap favors AUD if risk appetite improves; Fed easing later this year vs RBA tightening. AU CPI & jobs due this month; strong US data or hawkish Fed could lift USD/AUD