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Bias USD/CNY sits below the 90-day average and drifts toward the middle of the 3-month range; bias bearish-to-range-bound as the Fed eases and the PBOC backs the yuan. Key drivers - Rate gap: Markets expect the US Fed to ease policy later this year, narrowing the gap with China’s policy stance and limiting USD upside on improving signals. - Risk/commodities: Oil remains volatile and risk appetite swings; calmer oil markets can ease USD pressure on the yuan, while sharper moves could amplify volatility. - Macro factor: The PBOC (People’s Bank of China) continues to stand behind the yuan, with offshore yuan bills in Hong Kong aimed at absorbing liquidity and stabilizing the currency. Range Expect the pair to drift toward the middle of the 3-month range, with mild swings around that level and occasional brief tests of the lower boundary. What could change it - Upside risk: unexpected strength in US data or a hawkish tilt from the Fed could keep USD firmer against the yuan and push the pair higher. - Downside risk: additional yuan-supportive policy actions by the PBOC or surprise improvement in Chinese data could strengthen the yuan