Send to China Transfers Compared

USD/CNY eyes a bearish-to-range-bound drift, trading below the 90-day avg near the 3-month trough. Fed rate cuts toward neutral in 2026 and PBOC yuan support keep downside capped, with a pull toward the middle as policy signals digest. Bias Bearish-to-range-bound, as USD/CNY sits below its 90-day average and at the lower end of the 3-month range. Key drivers - Rate gap: The Fed is expected to deliver rate cuts toward a neutral stance in 2026, narrowing the USD yield advantage over the yuan. - Risk/commodities: Global risk appetite has swung with oil, and that volatility feeds flows that can push USD/CNY up or down. - Macro factor: PBOC actions to stabilize the yuan, including offshore yuan bond issuance, continue to support the yuan and cap downside for the pair. Range Expect a drift within the recent 3-month band, with a mild tendency toward the middle as policy signals are digested and markets settle. What could change it - Upside risk: Strong US payrolls data or hawkish Fed commentary could lift the dollar and push USD/CNY higher. - Downside risk: Additional PBOC easing or stronger yuan-support measures could push USD/CNY lower