Send to Eurozone Transfers Compared

Bias Range-bound; USD/EUR near the 90-day average and mid-range of the last 3 months. Key drivers - Rate gap: US policy may ease toward a neutral stance later, while the ECB is seen keeping policy on hold for now, narrowing the USD’s yield edge. - Risk/commodities: Oil remains near multi-week highs with notable volatility, which can weigh on the euro via higher energy costs. - Macro factor: The ECB is expected to keep policy neutral for the foreseeable future, helping anchor the EUR against the dollar. Range USD/EUR is likely to drift within the last three months’ range, with no strong impulse to test the extremes in the near term. What could change it - Upside risk: hotter US payrolls or a hawkish Fed tone could lift the USD. - Downside risk: softer US data or clearer signals of near-term easing from the Fed could weigh on the USD and support the EUR. USD/EUR range-bound near the 90-day avg, mid-range of the last 3 months. ECB on hold and a narrower US yield edge keep moves limited; oil volatility adds EUR support. Upside risk: hot payrolls; downside: softer data or near-term Fed easing