Outlook
Outlook The INR faces ongoing pressure from a firm dollar and high U.S. rates, with global risk appetite tightening. RBI policy remains focused on inflation and growth, limiting sharp moves. Near-term data and policy guidance will shape the path.
Key drivers
- U.S. rate path and dollar strength affecting funding costs.
- Oil imports and the trade gap widening USD demand.
- Foreign investor withdrawals in risk-off periods weigh on assets.
- RBI policy balance inflation, growth and FX reserves.
- Geopolitical tensions lifting safe-dollar demand.
Range
INR/USD 0.010895; range 0.010856–0.011176. INR/EUR 0.009390; range 0.009085–0.009570. INR/GBP 0.008157; range 0.007872–0.008366. INR/JPY 1.7160; range 1.6648–1.7620.
What could change it
- Softer Fed path or dollar easing.
- Oil relief and narrower trade gap.
- Fresh inflows into Indian assets.
- RBI signals growth support within inflation limits.
- Reduced geopolitical tensions and better risk appetite.
