The Indian Rupee (INR) has recently experienced fluctuations and varying forecasts, indicating a complex future for this currency. Currently, the INR to USD exchange rate is at near 14-day lows, trading around 0.011078, which is about 1.1% below its three-month average of 0.011205. This pairs with a relatively stable trading range of 0.010999 to 0.011398. Meanwhile, the INR has also shown weakness against the Euro, British Pound, and to some extent, the Japanese Yen.
Analysts at Union Bank of India forecast the INR may weaken further, potentially reaching 90 per USD by March 2026. This prediction is based on both fundamental and technical analysis, suggesting that current market trends may not favor the currency in the short term. Conversely, Bank of America holds a more optimistic view, projecting that the INR could appreciate to 86 per USD by the end of 2026. They attribute the recent depreciation to temporary global factors rather than inherent weaknesses within the Indian economy.
Further insights from UBS Global Research have painted a cautious picture as well, adjusting their forecast for 2026 to a range of 90 to 92 per USD. They highlight the importance of potential improvements stemming from a US–India trade deal, which could benefit the INR if materialized. Fitch Ratings also backs a more positive outlook, predicting a strengthening of the INR to 87 per USD by the end of 2026, buoyed by robust economic growth and manageable inflation.
On the other hand, Barclays adopts a more pessimistic stance, forecasting further weakness that might see the INR drop to around 94 per USD by the end of 2026. This outlook reflects concerns about continued foreign portfolio outflows and limited intervention by the Reserve Bank of India.
In the current market, the INR to EUR rate is at 0.009521, also trailing below the three-month average of 0.009626, while the INR to GBP is sitting at 0.008263, which is 1.9% below its average of 0.008422. However, the INR has shown strength against the yen, trading at 1.7491, slightly above its average.
These varying forecasts highlight an uncertain path for the INR, influenced by domestic economic performance, global market volatility, and key trade negotiations. Businesses involved in international transactions should carefully consider these developments when planning their currency exchanges.
