The Indian Rupee (INR) faces several key influences that are shaping its value against major currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar. As of mid-October 2025, analysts report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is actively defending the INR at the 88.80 level against the USD through dollar-rupee swaps and market interventions. This strong stance has been reinforced amid a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, particularly escalating conflicts with Pakistan, which are contributing to market volatility and risk aversion.
Trade relations with the U.S. have also become increasingly challenging due to the imposition of tariffs up to 50% on Indian exports, notably textiles and chemicals. This has the potential to weigh down the rupee as it inhibits the strength of key export sectors. On a more positive note, anticipation of significant foreign portfolio inflows from upcoming Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) by Tata Capital and LG Electronics India, totaling $3.05 billion, is expected to provide temporary support for the rupee in the short term.
In terms of recent performance, the INR to USD exchange rate is currently at 7-day highs near 0.011271, which is 1.2% below its three-month average of 0.011407. It has traded in a stable range of 0.011253 to 0.011651 over recent weeks. The INR's value also shows resilience against the Euro, currently sitting at 0.009696, just 0.7% below its three-month average, while maintaining a range from 0.009531 to 0.010024. The GBP relationship is slightly below its three-month average with a rate of 0.008438, reflecting stability within a 4.4% range. Interestingly, against the JPY, the rupee is at 1.7035, which is 0.9% above its three-month average, having a notable trading range from 1.6585 to 1.7312.
Overall, market expectations remain cautious, with analysts closely monitoring RBI interventions and geopolitical developments to gauge future INR movements. Strategies for managing currency exposure should consider these variables, as fluctuations in the INR's value are likely to continue in the coming weeks.
