The USD to KRW exchange rate shows a bearish bias as the US dollar faces downward pressure. Interest rate expectations play a significant role; the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates further, which could weaken the USD. Meanwhile, the South Korean won's continuing depreciation against the dollar is anticipated, given the Bank of Korea’s concerns regarding inflation. This scenario may prompt the Bank to act to stabilize the won.
In the near term, the USD/KRW is expected to trade within a stable range, reflecting current movements just below the three-month average. This stability results from a generally confined trading range seen recently.
An upside risk to the USD could come from unexpected economic growth in the US or improved sentiment from consumer indices. Conversely, a downside risk is if the Bank of Korea implements aggressive measures that successfully bolster the won’s value, potentially leading to a more pronounced depreciation of the USD in relation to the KRW.
