Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, with USD/PKR trading below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range, and near 14-day highs, within a narrow daily range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Fed is expected to start easing while PKR policy remains steady, keeping USD support modestly intact as rate differentials gradually narrow.
- One macro factor: Privatization efforts, including the sale of state assets like PIA, aim to shore up forex reserves and support the PKR, which could improve confidence.
Range: within the 3-month band, likely to drift toward the lower edge but not break out, keeping traders alert for a test of the range amid domestic data and external headlines.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: firmer US jobs data or a delay in Fed easing could push USD/PKR higher as dollar demand strengthens.
- Downside risk: faster PKR reserve build or earlier Fed easing could push USD/PKR lower as funding improves and dollar demand softens.
