The recent forecasts for the USD to UAH exchange rate reflect a complex interplay of U.S. economic data and developments in Ukraine. Analysts note that the US dollar (USD) is under pressure following mixed jobs data that fueled speculation about dovish Federal Reserve rate cuts. Although payrolls reached a five-month high in September, an unexpected increase in unemployment and revisions to prior payroll figures dampened investor sentiment. Looking ahead, the USD is expected to react to upcoming S&P PMIs, which could further clarify the economic landscape.
On August 11, 2025, several factors were identified as pivotal for the USD's valuation. Notably, expectations regarding a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve and the forthcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report may lead to significant shifts in interest rate outlooks. Additionally, the consideration of global dedollarization trends and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions may impact the USD's strength moving forward.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) has experienced notable developments. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) recently devalued the hryvnia to 41.9969 per USD, complying with IMF recommendations amid new loan negotiations. The NBU has also committed to a managed flexible exchange rate system, providing room for the official rate to align closer to market levels while controlling volatility.
The NBU's adjustment of its inflation forecast to 9.7%—up from 8.7%—indicates the pressures Ukrainian consumers face, primarily due to rising import costs. Despite these challenges, the bank reports that the foreign exchange market remains stable, with the hryvnia having strengthened by 0.65% since the start of the year.
Currently, the USD to UAH exchange rate is at a 90-day high near 42.24, which is 1.6% above its three-month average of 41.59, demonstrating a relatively stable trading range between 40.88 and 42.24. This positioning suggests that while pressures exist on both currencies, significant fluctuations may be moderated by ongoing economic policies in both the U.S. and Ukraine. Investors will need to remain vigilant regarding economic indicators that could influence these rates in the near future.
