USD/UAH Outlook:
The USD/UAH exchange rate is likely to move sideways, as it is near its recent average and trading stable within its range. The ongoing market dynamics suggest limited momentum in either direction.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's adjustments to interest rates could support the USD, while the National Bank of Ukraine's stabilization efforts help the UAH.
• Risk/commodities: The fluctuations in oil prices can influence the UAH, although recent trends have been stable, minimizing direct impact on the current exchange rate.
• One macro factor: Ukrainian bankers anticipate that the current UAH weakening is temporary, and they expect stabilization around UAH 43.2/$1 due to seasonal factors.
Range:
Expect the USD/UAH to hold steady within its recent trading range, as market conditions remain stable.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant surprise in US jobless claims could bolster the USD if it shows lower than expected numbers.
• Downside risk: If geopolitical tensions escalate, it may destabilize the UAH and weaken its position against the USD.
