The recent dynamics of the USD to VND exchange rate reflect a complex interplay of factors influencing both currencies. Analysts note that the US dollar has weakened due to a risk-positive market environment diminishing demand for the safe-haven currency. This decline was somewhat tempered by a drop in initial jobless claims, which allowed the USD to recover slightly during European trading hours. However, the ongoing risk-on sentiment continues to limit substantial gains for the dollar.
Looking ahead, various factors will likely influence the USD. The impending transition in Federal Reserve leadership and the expected inflation data, with a predicted rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), could significantly impact Fed policy and, consequently, the USD's valuation. Furthermore, the approaching deadline for US-China tariff negotiations might create volatility, particularly in sectors sensitive to such tariffs.
In terms of the Vietnamese đồng, forecasts suggest a depreciation of approximately 3% against the USD in 2025, driven by both the strong dollar and global economic trends. To manage exchange rate pressures, the State Bank of Vietnam has intervened in the market, selling about $1.5 billion through forward contracts to support the VND. Notably, recent US tariffs on Vietnamese goods have also pressured the currency, as Vietnam aims to maintain its export competitiveness.
Current market prices indicate that USD to VND is trading near 14-day lows at around 26,350, which aligns with its three-month average. This stability reflects a relatively narrow trading range observed recently. Analysts emphasize that these developments demonstrate the broader economic challenges facing Vietnam as it strives for robust growth despite external pressures.
Overall, careful monitoring of these factors and market trends will be crucial for individuals and businesses engaging with the USD to VND exchange rate in the coming months.
