The USD to VND exchange rate has shown notable movement recently, largely influenced by broader market trends and domestic developments in Vietnam. Analysts indicate that the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure due to a risk-on sentiment among investors, pushing the USD to near monthly lows around 26,359 VND, which aligns closely with its three-month average. Factors affecting this include strong expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, leading to a weaker USD as interest-rate differentials narrow. Mixed economic data from the US presents a complex picture; while some indicators suggest slowing growth, the labour market remains resilient, which could temper the downside for the USD.
Experts forecast that the Vietnamese đồng (VND) is likely to depreciate by approximately 3% against the USD in 2025 due to the comparatively stronger dollar and prevailing global economic conditions. A new cryptocurrency regulation pilot program in Vietnam mandates that all crypto transactions be conducted in VND, which could influence transactional demand but may not significantly offset broader depreciation trends. Additionally, the recent implementation of new reporting requirements for large transactions could introduce some volatility in the VND market.
Market observers note that geopolitical stability has mitigated safe-haven demand for the USD, allowing risk assets to gain attractiveness and contributing to the dollar's recent decline. As the USD trades within a narrow range of 0.5%, indicating stability, the outlook suggests that the greenback may continue to face challenges amid shifting market sentiment, especially if upcoming inflation prints indicate further easing policies from the Fed.
To summarize, while the USD is facing short-term bearish pressures and a likely depreciation over the medium term, the VND's outlook is similarly set against a backdrop of strong forecasts for the USD. Currency market participants are encouraged to monitor upcoming economic data releases and Fed communications closely, as these will be pivotal in shaping the exchange rate dynamics between the USD and VND moving forward.
